Publications

2016
Blechman, Barry. 2016. “Ta kärnvapenhotet på allvar.” Dagens industri, sec. Debatt. Publisher's Version
2015
Blechman, Barry, and Laicie Heeley. 2015. Reducing the Risk of Nuclear War in the Nordic/Baltic Region. Washington, DC: Stimson Center. Publisher's Version
Shaver, Andrew, and Yang-Yang Zhou. 2015. “Don't Fear Refugees: Why They Pose Little Threat to National Security.” Foreign Affairs. Publisher's Version
2015. “Three lessons for the Iran nuclear deal from a spy thriller about the Cold War.” Washington Post -- The Monkey Cage. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/10/07/three-lessons-for-the-iran-nuclear-deal-from-a-spy-thriller-about
Shaver, Andrew C. 2015. “The Effects of Temperature on Political Violence: Global Evidence at the Subnational Level.” PLOS ONE.Abstract

A number of studies have demonstrated an empirical relationship between higher ambient temperatures and substate violence, which have been extrapolated to make predictions about the security implications of climate change. This literature rests on the untested assumption that the mechanism behind the temperature-conflict link is that disruption of agricultural production provokes local violence. Using a subnational-level dataset, this paper demonstrates that the relationship: (1) obtains globally, (2) exists at the substate level — provinces that experience positive temperature deviations see increased conflict; and (3) occurs even in regions without significant agricultural production. Diminished local farm output resulting from elevated temperatures is unlikely to account for the entire increase in substate violence. The findings encourage future research to identify additional mechanisms, including the possibility that a substantial portion of the variation is brought about by the well-documented direct effects of temperature on individuals' propensity for violence or through macroeconomic mechanisms such as food price shocks.

Shaver, Andrew C. 2015. “How climate change makes the world more violent.” The Monkey Cage (Washington Post).
2011
2011. “Explaining Libya to Iran.” CNN Global Public Square.
2010
Blechman, Barry M. 2010. “5 myths about getting rid of the bomb.” Washington Post, sec. Opinions.
2010. “Breaking Out of Zero: Would Cheating be Worth the Risk?.” Elements of a Nuclear Disarmament Treaty. Washington, D.C.: Stimson Center.
2010. “Governance of a Nuclear Disarmament Treaty.” Elements of a Nuclear Disarmament Treaty. Washington, D.C.: Stimson Center.
Hartigan, Kelsey. 2010. “Reconciling the Nuclear Renaissance with Disarmament.” The Norwegian Atlantic Committee Security Policy Library, no. 2.
Bergenas, Johan. 2010. “START Follow-On Treaty: Advancing Nuclear Disarmament Beyond U.S., Russia.” World Politics Review.
Blechman, Barry M. 2010. “Zero Nuclear Weapons: The Pragmatic Path to Security.” Nonproliferation Review 17 (3).
2008
2008. “The US-German Tactical Nuclear Weapons Dilemma.” Stimson Center.
2007
2007. “Details Bedevil Libyan Grand Bargain.” Arms Control Today.
2007. “France, Libya Sign Nuclear Desalination Deal.” Arms Control Today.
2007. “Iran-Iraq Chemical Warfare Aftershocks Persist.” Arms Control Today.

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