Title: Demographic Heterogeneity in IAMs, Implications for Emissions, Mitigation and Impacts
Increasing the level of demographic heterogeneity in integrated assessment models has been a major development over the past decade (Krey, 2014; van Ruijven et al., 2008). So far, most studies have focused on the implications of changes in the demographic structure on energy use and emissions. Some examples of this include the effects of an ageing population on energy use and emissions (Dalton et al., 2008), implications of different levels of population growth (O'Neill et al., 2010), the consequents of urbanization (Krey et al., 2012; O'Neill et al., 2012) and the effects of changes in income distribution (Ekholm et al., 2010; van Ruijven et al., 2011) and electricity access (Pachauri et al., 2013; van Ruijven et al., 2012).
In this seminar, I will present NCAR’s integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, which is strongly focused on demographic heterogeneity. iPETS is an integrated assessment modeling framework that links a global energy-economic growth model, the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model (Dalton et al., 2008; Dalton and Goulder, 2001; O'Neill et al., 2010; O'Neill et al., 2012), with a demographic projection module (Nawrotzki and Jiang, 2014) and with the a biophysical model of the climate system and greenhouse gas cycles (the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), Jain and Cao, 2005). I will present examples of studies in which model has been used to assess the implications of changes in demographic structure for emissions and mitigation. The seminar will also include analyses of the implications of climate change impacts and climate policies for urban and rural households.
Bas van Ruijven is Project Scientist II with the Integrated Assessment Modeling group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO. Bas holds an MSc in Environmental Science and a PhD in Energy Science from Utrecht University in the Netherlands. His PhD thesis focused on modeling energy and development, especially dealing with the dynamics of developing countries in Integrated Assessment Models. Bas has been visiting researcher at Chalmers University in Gothenburg, Sweden, working on multi-agent models for energy use and climate change mitigation. He also stayed several months in India, at IGIDR, Mumbai and IISc Bangalore to develop a model for Indian household energy use. Between 2008 and 2011, Bas was Policy Researcher at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and worked on energy system modeling with the IMAGE integrated assessment model. He joined NCAR in September 2011.
Bas' research interests cover a wide range of topics, from energy and technology scenarios to developing countries and climate change impacts. Applying the results of integrated assessment models, Bas has worked on projects such as the development of a low-carbon energy vision for Europe in 2050, a project on Policy Options to Engage Emerging Asian Economies in a post-Kyoto regime (POEM), the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME) and the Latin America Modeling Project (LAMP). Bas has been a lead author for UNEP's Global Environmental Outlook 4 and the Global Energy Assessment. Bas co-chairs the working group on “future scenarios for IAV indicators" of the International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS).