Workshop on Improving the Characterization of Deep Uncertainties Surrounding Sea‐Level Projections

Date: 

Wednesday, February 25, 2015, 4:30pm

Co-organized by Chris Little, Klaus Keller, Michael Oppenheimer, Robert Kopp, Roger Cooke

Sponsored by the Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy (STEP)

Managing the risks driven by sea-level changes requires a sound characterization of the associated deep uncertainties. Current studies quantifying these risks have broken important new ground. However, they still face challenges to quantify the effects of divergent expert priors, uncertain model parameters and structures, initial conditions, and forcings. In addition, it is often unclear which uncertainties matter the most, how fast uncertainties might be reduced and whether this learning would occur fast enough to improve the design of risk management strategies.