Academic Publications

BOOKS

Small Wars, Big Data, The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict, with Eli Berman, Jospeh H. Felter, and Vestal McIntyre, 2018.

REVIEWS
Wars of none: AI, big data, and the future of insurgency, Chris Meserole, July 2018

Foundations of the Islamic State Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, 2005-2010, with Patrick Johnston, Jacob Shapiro, Howard Shatz, et. al., 2016.

The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations, Princeton University Press (July 2013).

REVIEWS
The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations, Anita M. McGahan, December 2014.
Terrorism and Political Violence, Francesco Marone, Vol 26: 4 (2014): p 556.
Handelsblatt, Pierre Heumann, February 14, 2014.
Foreign Affairs, Lawrence D. Freedman, January/February 2014
London Review of Books, Owen Bennett-Jones, December 19, 2013.
Live Mint and the Wall Street Journal, Gayatri Chandrasekaran, November 22, 2013.

JOURNAL ARTICLES

"Historical Contingencies in the Evolution of States and Their Militaries", with Jonathan Bendor, Forthcoming in World Politics

"Building connections: Political corruption and road construction in India", with Jonathan Lehne, and Oliver Vanden Eynde, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 131 (2018), pp. 62-78.

PRESS
Politician-contractor nexus pocketing money for roads never built: study
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana: Study links MLA surnames to ‘missing’ roads, govt calls it fallacious, Shalini Nair, January 2018

"Limiting Civilian Causalities as Part of a Winning Strategy: The Case of Courageous Restraint", with Joseph Felter, Deadalus, Vol. 146, Issue 1 (January 2017), pp. 44-58.

"International Law and Voter Preferences: The Case of Foreign Human Rights Violations", with Tonya L. Putnam, Human Rights Review, (April 2017) pp 1-20

"Relative Poverty, Perceived Violence, and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair, Rebecca Littman, and Neil Malhotra, February 16, 2016.

"Understanding the Daesh Economy," With Jamie Hansen-Lewis, Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 9, No. 4 (August 2015), pp. 142-155.

"Is the Phone Mightier than the Sword? Cell Phones and Insurgent Violence in Iraq," With Nils B. Weidmann, International Organization, Vol. 69, No. 2 (March 2015), pp 247-274.

"Coordination and security: How mobile communications affect insurgency," With David A. Siegel, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 52, No. 3 (2015), pp 312-322.

"An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions," With Bryn Rosenfeld and Kosuke Imai, 2015.

"Measuring political violence in Pakistan: Insights from the BFRS Dataset," with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, C. Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan and Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Conflict Management and Peace Science (2014), pp 1-23.

"The BFRS Political Violence in Pakistan Dataset," With Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, C. Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan, and Rasul Bakhsh Rais, July 7, 2013.

"Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones," With Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter, and Erin Troland, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, 103(3): 512-517. Longer version as NBER Working Paper 18674.

"Insurgent Compensation: Evidence from Iraq," With Benjamin W. Bahney, Radha K. Iyengar, Patrick B. Johnston, Danielle F. Jung, and Howard J. Shatz, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, 103(3): 518-522. Appendix.

"Democratic Values and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from a National Survey of Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Journal of Conflict Resolution (21 March 2013), http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/early/2013/03/21/0022002713478564.

"Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," With Graeme Blair, C. Christine Fair, and Neil Malhotra, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 57, No. 1 (January 2013), pp. 30-48.

"Faith or Doctrine? Religion and Support for Political Violence in Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 76, No. 4 (Winter 2012), pp 688-720.

"Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science," Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 6, Issues 4-5 (October 2012), pp. 5-20.

"Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007?," With Stephen Biddle and Jeffrey A. Friedman, International Security 37 (Summer 2012): 7-40. Online Appendix. Correspondence, "Assessing the Synergy Thesis in Iraq."

"Statistical Analysis of Endorsement Experiments: Measuring Support for Militant Groups in Pakistan," With Will Bullock and Kosuke Imai, Political Analysis 19 (2011): 363-384.

"Moral Hazard, Discipline, and the Management of Terrorist Organizations," With David A. Siegel, World Politics 64 (2012): 39-78. Online Appendix.

"Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage," With Luke Condra, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 56, No. 1 (January 2012), 167-187. Appendix.

"Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," With Eli Berman and Joseph H. Felter, Journal of Political Economy 119 (August 2011): 766-819.

"Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Philippines," With Eli Berman, Michael Callen and Joseph H. Felter, Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, 4 (2011): 496-528.

"Islam, Militancy, and Politics in Pakistan: Insights from a National Sample," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Terrorism and Political Violence, 22:4 (September 2010): 495-521.

"Tortured Relations: Human Rights Abuses and Counterterrorism Cooperation," With Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Cambridge Journals, PS: Political Science & Politics 43, issue 03 (July 2010): 415-419.

"Understanding support for Islamist Militancy in Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair. International Security 34, No. 3 (Winter 2010): 79-118.

"Is This Paper Dangerous? Balancing Secrecy and Openness in Counterterrorism," With David A. Siegel. Security Studies (2010) 19: 66-98. Mathematical Appendix.

"Fuzzy Set Modeling of Insurgent Networks," With Richard Avila. Military Operations Research (2008) 13, 41-50.

“Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations,” With David A. Siegel. In International Studies Quarterly (2007) 51, 405-429. Mathematical Appendix.

"Color-Bind: Lessons from the Failed Homeland Security Advisory System," With Dara K. Cohen. International Security (2007) 32, 121-154.

BOOK CHAPTERS AND REPORTS

“Managing a Transnational Insurgency: The Islamic State of Iraq’s ‘Paper Trail,’ 2005-2010.” West Point, N.Y.:  Combating Terrorism Center, December 15, 2014.  With Danielle F. Jung, Pat Ryan and Jon Wallace.  

"Bombers, Bank Accounts & Bleedout: Al-Qa’ida’s Road In and Out of Iraq." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2008. With Brian Fishman et. al.

"Terrorist Organizations’ Vulnerabilities and Inefficiencies: A Rational Choice Perspective." In Terrorist Financing in Comparative Perspective. Harold Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo, eds. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007.

"Al-Qa’ida’s (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2007. With Clinton Watts et. al.

"Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting al-Qa’ida’s Organizational Vulnerabilitie." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2006. With Joseph Felter, et. al.