Academic Publications


Small Wars, Big Data, The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict, with Eli Berman, Jospeh H. Felter, and Vestal McIntyre, 2018.

Wars of none: AI, big data, and the future of insurgency, Chris Meserole, July 2018

Foundations of the Islamic State Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, 2005-2010, with Patrick Johnston, Jacob Shapiro, Howard Shatz, et. al., 2016.

The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations, Princeton University Press (July 2013).

The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations, Anita M. McGahan, December 2014.
Terrorism and Political Violence, Francesco Marone, Vol 26: 4 (2014): p 556.
Handelsblatt, Pierre Heumann, February 14, 2014.
Foreign Affairs, Lawrence D. Freedman, January/February 2014
London Review of Books, Owen Bennett-Jones, December 19, 2013.
Live Mint and the Wall Street Journal, Gayatri Chandrasekaran, November 22, 2013.


"Building connections: Political corruption and road construction in India", with Jonathan Lehne, and Oliver Vanden Eynde, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 131 (2018), pp. 62-78.

Politician-contractor nexus pocketing money for roads never built: study
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana: Study links MLA surnames to ‘missing’ roads, govt calls it fallacious, Shalini Nair, January 2018

"Limiting Civilian Causalities as Part of a Winning Strategy: The Case of Courageous Restraint", with Joseph Felter, Deadalus, Vol. 146, Issue 1 (January 2017), pp. 44-58.

"International Law and Voter Preferences: The Case of Foreign Human Rights Violations", with Tonya L. Putnam, Human Rights Review, (April 2017) pp 1-20

"Relative Poverty, Perceived Violence, and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair, Rebecca Littman, and Neil Malhotra, February 16, 2016.

"Understanding the Daesh Economy," With Jamie Hansen-Lewis, Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 9, No. 4 (August 2015), pp. 142-155.

"Is the Phone Mightier than the Sword? Cell Phones and Insurgent Violence in Iraq," With Nils B. Weidmann, International Organization, Vol. 69, No. 2 (March 2015), pp 247-274.

"Coordination and security: How mobile communications affect insurgency," With David A. Siegel, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 52, No. 3 (2015), pp 312-322.

"An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions," With Bryn Rosenfeld and Kosuke Imai, 2015.

"Measuring political violence in Pakistan: Insights from the BFRS Dataset," with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, C. Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan and Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Conflict Management and Peace Science (2014), pp 1-23.

"The BFRS Political Violence in Pakistan Dataset," With Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, C. Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan, and Rasul Bakhsh Rais, July 7, 2013.

"Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones," With Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter, and Erin Troland, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, 103(3): 512-517. Longer version as NBER Working Paper 18674.

"Insurgent Compensation: Evidence from Iraq," With Benjamin W. Bahney, Radha K. Iyengar, Patrick B. Johnston, Danielle F. Jung, and Howard J. Shatz, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, 103(3): 518-522. Appendix.

"Democratic Values and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from a National Survey of Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Journal of Conflict Resolution (21 March 2013),

"Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," With Graeme Blair, C. Christine Fair, and Neil Malhotra, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 57, No. 1 (January 2013), pp. 30-48.

"Faith or Doctrine? Religion and Support for Political Violence in Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 76, No. 4 (Winter 2012), pp 688-720.

"Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science," Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 6, Issues 4-5 (October 2012), pp. 5-20.

"Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007?," With Stephen Biddle and Jeffrey A. Friedman, International Security 37 (Summer 2012): 7-40. Online Appendix. Correspondence, "Assessing the Synergy Thesis in Iraq."

"Statistical Analysis of Endorsement Experiments: Measuring Support for Militant Groups in Pakistan," With Will Bullock and Kosuke Imai, Political Analysis 19 (2011): 363-384.

"Moral Hazard, Discipline, and the Management of Terrorist Organizations," With David A. Siegel, World Politics 64 (2012): 39-78. Online Appendix.

"Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage," With Luke Condra, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 56, No. 1 (January 2012), 167-187. Appendix.

"Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," With Eli Berman and Joseph H. Felter, Journal of Political Economy 119 (August 2011): 766-819.

"Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Philippines," With Eli Berman, Michael Callen and Joseph H. Felter, Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, 4 (2011): 496-528.

"Islam, Militancy, and Politics in Pakistan: Insights from a National Sample," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Terrorism and Political Violence, 22:4 (September 2010): 495-521.

"Tortured Relations: Human Rights Abuses and Counterterrorism Cooperation," With Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Cambridge Journals, PS: Political Science & Politics 43, issue 03 (July 2010): 415-419.

"Understanding support for Islamist Militancy in Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair. International Security 34, No. 3 (Winter 2010): 79-118.

"Is This Paper Dangerous? Balancing Secrecy and Openness in Counterterrorism," With David A. Siegel. Security Studies (2010) 19: 66-98. Mathematical Appendix.

"Fuzzy Set Modeling of Insurgent Networks," With Richard Avila. Military Operations Research (2008) 13, 41-50.

“Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations,” With David A. Siegel. In International Studies Quarterly (2007) 51, 405-429. Mathematical Appendix.

"Color-Bind: Lessons from the Failed Homeland Security Advisory System," With Dara K. Cohen. International Security (2007) 32, 121-154.


“Managing a Transnational Insurgency: The Islamic State of Iraq’s ‘Paper Trail,’ 2005-2010.” West Point, N.Y.:  Combating Terrorism Center, December 15, 2014.  With Danielle F. Jung, Pat Ryan and Jon Wallace.  

"Bombers, Bank Accounts & Bleedout: Al-Qa’ida’s Road In and Out of Iraq." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2008. With Brian Fishman et. al.

"Terrorist Organizations’ Vulnerabilities and Inefficiencies: A Rational Choice Perspective." In Terrorist Financing in Comparative Perspective. Harold Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo, eds. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007.

"Al-Qa’ida’s (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2007. With Clinton Watts et. al.

"Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting al-Qa’ida’s Organizational Vulnerabilitie." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2006. With Joseph Felter, et. al.