Academic Publications


Small Wars, Big Data, The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict, with Eli Berman, Jospeh H. Felter, and Vestal McIntyre, Princeton University Press (2018).

Australian Army Research Centre, Book Review: Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict, Andrew Maher, Major, Australian Army, 30 April 2021.
Civil Wars, 22:2-3, 424-426, Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict, Martijn Van der Vorm June 22, 2020. 
Lessons From the Long War: The Role of Information in Counter-Insurgency, Zachary Griffiths, January 9, 2019
Wars of none: AI, big data, and the future of insurgency, Chris Meserole, July 2018
Essential Reading For COIN Practitioners, Major General (Retired) Denis Thompson, October 2018

Kings College London, Center for the Study of Governance & Society, with Samuel DeCanio, Lecturer, Department of Political Economy

Foundations of the Islamic State Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq, 2005-2010, with Patrick Johnston, Jacob Shapiro, Howard Shatz, et. al., Rand Corporation (2016).

The Terrorist's Dilemma: Managing Violent Covert Organizations, Princeton University Press (July 2013).

Terrorism and Political Violence, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Vol 27: 3, July 2015.
Administrative Science Quarterly, Johnson Cornell University, Vol 60(1)NP10-NP12, Anita M. McGahan, 2015.
Perspectives on Politics, Barak Mendelsohn, Vol 12: 4, December 2014.
Terrorism and Political Violence, Francesco Marone, Vol 26: 4 (2014): p 556.
Handelsblatt, Pierre Heumann, February 14, 2014.
Foreign Affairs, Lawrence D. Freedman, January/February 2014.
London Review of Books, Owen Bennett-Jones, December 19, 2013.
Live Mint and the Wall Street Journal, Gayatri Chandrasekaran, November 22, 2013.


Exposure to Conflict, Migrations and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Adnan Efendic and Dejan Kovac, Defense and Peace Economics, July 15, 2022.

Removal of Anti-Vaccine Content Impacts Social Media Discourse, with Tamar Mitts and Nilima Pisharody, WebSci '22: 14th ACM Web Science Conference 2022 (June 2022), Pages 319–326.

"COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and hesitancy in low-and middle-income countries", with Julio S. Solís Arce, Shana S. Warren, Niccolò F. Meriggi, Alexandra Scacco, Nina McMurry, Maarten Voors, Georgiy Syunyaev, Amyn Abdul Malik, Samya Aboutajdine, Opeyemi Adeojo, Deborah Anigo, Alex Armand, Saher Asad, Martin Atyera, Britta Augsburg, Manisha Awasthi, Gloria Eden Ayesiga, Antonella Bancalari, Martina Björkman Nyqvist, Ekaterina Borisova, Constantin Manuel Bosancianu, Magarita Rosa Cabra García, Ali Cheema, Elliott Collins, Filippo Cuccaro, Ahsan Zia Farooqi, Tatheer Fatima, Mattia Fracchia, Mery Len Galindo Soria, Andrea Guariso, Ali Hasanain, Sofía Jaramillo, Sellu Kallon, Anthony Kamwesigye, Arjun Kharel, Sarah Kreps, Madison Levine, Rebecca Littman, Mohammad Malik, Gisele Manirabaruta, Jean Léodomir Habarimana Mfura, Fatoma Momoh, Alberto Mucauque, Imamo Mussa, Jean Aime Nsabimana, Isaac Obara, María Juliana Otálora, Béchir Wendemi Ouédraogo, Touba Bakary Pare, Melina R. Platas, Laura Polanco, Javaeria Ashraf Qureshi, Mariam Raheem, Vasudha Ramakrishna, Ismail Rendrá, Taimur Shah, Sarene Eyla Shaked, Jakob Svensson, Ahsan Tariq, Achille Mignondo Tchibozo, Hamid Ali Tiwana, Bhartendu Trivedi, Corey Vernot, Pedro C. Vicente, Laurin B. Weissinger, Basit Zafar, Baobao Zhang, Dean Karlan, Michael Callen, Matthieu Teachout, Macartan Humphreys, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Saad B. Omer​​​​​, Nature Medicine, (July 16, 2021).

"How COVID drove the evolution of fact-checking", with Samikshya Siwakoti, Kamya Yadav, Nicola Bariletto, Luca Zanotti, and Ulas Erdogdu, Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review, (May 2021), Volume 2, Issue 3.

"Pricing risk in prostitution: Evidence from online sex ads", with Gregory DeAngelo, Jeffrey Borowitz, MIchael Cafarella, Christopher Ré and Gary Shiffman, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 59, 281-305(2019).

"Recent Trends in Online Foreign Influence Efforts", with Diego A. Martin and Michelle Nedashkovskaya, Journal of Information Warfare, Winter 2019.

"Damaging democracy? Security provision and turnout in Afghan elections", (supporting information), with Luke Condra, Michale Callen, Radha K. Iyengar, and James D. Long. Economics & Politics, January 13, 2019.

"Historical Contingencies in the Evolution of States and Their Militaries", with Jonathan Bendor, Forthcoming in World Politics

"Building connections: Political corruption and road construction in India", with Jonathan Lehne, and Oliver Vanden Eynde, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 131 (2018), pp. 62-78.

Politician-contractor nexus pocketing money for roads never built: study
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana: Study links MLA surnames to ‘missing’ roads, govt calls it fallacious, Shalini Nair, January 2018

"Limiting Civilian Causalities as Part of a Winning Strategy: The Case of Courageous Restraint", with Joseph Felter, Deadalus, Vol. 146, Issue 1 (January 2017), pp. 44-58.

"International Law and Voter Preferences: The Case of Foreign Human Rights Violations", with Tonya L. Putnam, Human Rights Review, (April 2017) pp 1-20

"Relative Poverty, Perceived Violence, and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair, Rebecca Littman, and Neil Malhotra, February 16, 2016.

"Understanding the Daesh Economy," With Jamie Hansen-Lewis, Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 9, No. 4 (August 2015), pp. 142-155.

"Is the Phone Mightier than the Sword? Cell Phones and Insurgent Violence in Iraq," With Nils B. Weidmann, International Organization, Vol. 69, No. 2 (March 2015), pp 247-274.

"Coordination and security: How mobile communications affect insurgency," With David A. Siegel, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 52, No. 3 (2015), pp 312-322.

"An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions," With Bryn Rosenfeld and Kosuke Imai, 2015.

"Measuring political violence in Pakistan: Insights from the BFRS Dataset," with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, C. Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan and Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Conflict Management and Peace Science (2014), pp 1-23.

"The BFRS Political Violence in Pakistan Dataset," With Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, C. Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan, and Rasul Bakhsh Rais, July 7, 2013.

"Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones," With Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter, and Erin Troland, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, 103(3): 512-517. Longer version as NBER Working Paper 18674.

"Insurgent Compensation: Evidence from Iraq," With Benjamin W. Bahney, Radha K. Iyengar, Patrick B. Johnston, Danielle F. Jung, and Howard J. Shatz, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2013, 103(3): 518-522. Appendix.

"Democratic Values and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from a National Survey of Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Journal of Conflict Resolution (21 March 2013),

"Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan," With Graeme Blair, C. Christine Fair, and Neil Malhotra, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 57, No. 1 (January 2013), pp. 30-48.

"Faith or Doctrine? Religion and Support for Political Violence in Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 76, No. 4 (Winter 2012), pp 688-720.

"Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science," Perspectives on Terrorism, Vol. 6, Issues 4-5 (October 2012), pp. 5-20.

"Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007?," With Stephen Biddle and Jeffrey A. Friedman, International Security 37 (Summer 2012): 7-40. Online Appendix. Correspondence, "Assessing the Synergy Thesis in Iraq."

"Statistical Analysis of Endorsement Experiments: Measuring Support for Militant Groups in Pakistan," With Will Bullock and Kosuke Imai, Political Analysis 19 (2011): 363-384.

"Moral Hazard, Discipline, and the Management of Terrorist Organizations," With David A. Siegel, World Politics 64 (2012): 39-78. Online Appendix.

"Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage," With Luke Condra, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 56, No. 1 (January 2012), 167-187. Appendix.

"Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," With Eli Berman and Joseph H. Felter, Journal of Political Economy 119 (August 2011): 766-819.

"Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Philippines," With Eli Berman, Michael Callen and Joseph H. Felter, Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, 4 (2011): 496-528.

"Islam, Militancy, and Politics in Pakistan: Insights from a National Sample," With C. Christine Fair and Neil Malhotra, Terrorism and Political Violence, 22:4 (September 2010): 495-521.

"Tortured Relations: Human Rights Abuses and Counterterrorism Cooperation," With Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Cambridge Journals, PS: Political Science & Politics 43, issue 03 (July 2010): 415-419.

"Understanding support for Islamist Militancy in Pakistan," With C. Christine Fair. International Security 34, No. 3 (Winter 2010): 79-118.

"Is This Paper Dangerous? Balancing Secrecy and Openness in Counterterrorism," With David A. Siegel. Security Studies (2010) 19: 66-98. Mathematical Appendix.

"Fuzzy Set Modeling of Insurgent Networks," With Richard Avila. Military Operations Research (2008) 13, 41-50.

“Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations,” With David A. Siegel. In International Studies Quarterly (2007) 51, 405-429. Mathematical Appendix.

"Color-Bind: Lessons from the Failed Homeland Security Advisory System," With Dara K. Cohen. International Security (2007) 32, 121-154.


“Managing a Transnational Insurgency: The Islamic State of Iraq’s ‘Paper Trail,’ 2005-2010.” West Point, N.Y.:  Combating Terrorism Center, December 15, 2014.  With Danielle F. Jung, Pat Ryan and Jon Wallace.  

"Bombers, Bank Accounts & Bleedout: Al-Qa’ida’s Road In and Out of Iraq." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2008. With Brian Fishman et. al.

"Terrorist Organizations’ Vulnerabilities and Inefficiencies: A Rational Choice Perspective." In Terrorist Financing in Comparative Perspective. Harold Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo, eds. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007.

"Al-Qa’ida’s (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2007. With Clinton Watts et. al.

"Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting al-Qa’ida’s Organizational Vulnerabilitie." Westpoint, N.Y.: Combating Terrorism Center, 2006. With Joseph Felter, et. al.