# Publications

2022
^Guo, Yixin, Pan He, Tim D. Searchinger, ..., Xin Zhang, Lin Zhang, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Environmental and human health trade-offs in potential Chinese dietary shifts.” One Earth 5 (2022).Abstract
Research shows that dietary shifts toward balanced diets and diets with more plant-based protein provide opportunities to address environmental and health challenges, but the effects on nitrogen pollution, associated air quality related deaths, and land use-associated carbon storage remain unclear. We examine a shift in Chinese diets toward four hypothetical alternative diets and find opportunities to mitigate air pollution and reduce disease burdens. Pairing improved food production techniques with modified dietary practices can benefit health and the environment.
Sharma, Disha, and Denise Mauzerall+. “Analysis of Air Pollution Data in India between 2015 and 2019.” Aerosol and Air Quality Research 22, no. 2 (2022).Abstract
India suffers from among the worst air pollution in the world. In response, a large government effort to increase air quality monitoring is underway. We present the first comprehensive analysis of government air quality observations from 2015–2019 for PM10,, PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and O3 from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) Continuous Ambient Air Quality Monitoring (CAAQM) network and the manual National Air Quality Monitoring Program (NAMP), as well as PM2.5 from the US Air-Now network. We address inconsistencies and data gaps in datasets using a rigorous procedure to ensure data representativeness. We find particulate pollution dominates the pollution mix across India with virtually all sites in northern India (divided at 23.5°N) exceeding the annual average PM10 and PM2.5 residential national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) by 150% and 100% respectively, and in southern India exceeding the PM10 standard by 50% and the PM2.5 standard by 40%. Annual average SO2, NO2 and MDA8 O3 generally meet the residential NAAQS across India. Northern India has (~10%–130%) higher concentrations of all pollutants than southern India, with only SO2 having similar concentrations. Although inter-annual variability exists, we found no significant trend of these pollutants over the five-year period. In the five cities with Air-Now PM2.5 measurements - Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Chennai, there is reasonable agreement with CPCB data. The PM2.5 CPCB CAAQM data compares well with satellite derived annual surface PM2.5 concentrations (Hammer et al., 2020), with the exception of the western desert region prior to 2018 when surface measurements exceeded satellite retrievals. Our reanalyzed dataset is useful for evaluation of Indian air quality from satellite data, atmospheric models, and low-cost sensors. Our dataset also provides a baseline to evaluate the future success of National Clean Air Programme as well as aids in assessment of existing and future air pollution mitigation policies.
2021
Mauzerall, Denise L.+. “A conversation on the impacts and mitigation of air pollution.” Nature Communications (2021).
Zhou, Mi, Hongxun Liu, Liqun Peng, Yue Qin, Dan Chen, Lin Zhang, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Environmental benefits and household costs of clean heating options in northern China.” Nature Sustainability (2021).Abstract
The Chinese government accelerated the clean residential heating transition in northern China as part of a successful effort to improve regional air quality. Meanwhile, China has committed to carbon neutrality by 2060, making strategic choices for long-term decarbonization of the residential sector necessary. However, the synergies and trade-offs for health and carbon of alternative heating options and associated costs have not been systematically considered. Here we investigate air-quality–health–carbon interdependencies as well as household costs of using electricity (heat pumps or resistance heaters), gas or clean coal for residential heating for individual provinces across northern China. We find substantial air-quality and health benefits, varied carbon emissions and increased heating costs across clean heating options. With the 2015 power mix, gas heaters offer the largest health–carbon co-benefits, while resistance heaters lead to health–carbon trade-offs. As the power grid decarbonizes, by 2030 heat pumps achieve the largest health–carbon synergies of the options we analysed. Despite high capital costs, heat pumps generally have the lowest operating costs and thus are competitive for long-term use. With increased subsidies on the purchase of heat pumps, the government can facilitate further air-quality improvements and carbon mitigation in the clean heating transition.
Peng^, Liqun, Feiqi Liu^, Mi Zhou^, Mingwei Li#, Qiang Zhang, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Alternative-energy-vehicles deployment delivers climate, air quality, and health co-benefits when coupled with decarbonizing power generation in China.” One Earth 4 (2021).Abstract
We estimate the co-benefits of AEV utilization for air quality, health, and climate, and evaluate the economic benefits of AEV penetration with various levels of decarbonized electricity in China. We find that air quality and GHG mitigation co-benefits through alternative energy vehicle deployment increases as the power sector decarbonized. Co­benefits are maximized via high penetration of AEV deployment powered with ambitious and rapid power sector decarbonization.
Liu, Feiqi, Denise L. Mauzerall+, Fuquan Zhao, and Han Hao. “Deployment of fuel cell vehicles in China: Greenhouse gas emission reductions from converting the heavy-duty truck fleet from diesel and natural gas to hydrogen.” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2021).Abstract
Hydrogen fuel cells, as an energy source for heavy duty vehicles, are gaining attention as a
potential carbon mitigation strategy. Here we calculate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Chinese heavy-duty truck fleet under four hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck penetration scenarios from 2020 through 2050. We introduce Aggressive, Moderate, Conservative and No Fuel Cell Vehicle (No FCV) scenarios. Under these four scenarios, the market share of heavy duty trucks powered by fuel cells will reach 100%, 50%, 20% and 0%, respectively, in 2050. We go beyond previous studies which compared differences in GHG emissions from different hydrogen production pathways. We now combine an analysis of the carbon intensity of various hydrogen production pathways with predictions of the future hydrogen supply structure in China along with various penetration rates of heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles. We calculate the associated carbon intensity per vehicle kilometer travelled of the hydrogen used in heavy-duty trucks in each scenario, providing a practical application of our research. Our results indicate that if China relies only on fuel economy improvements, with the projected increase in vehicle miles travelled, the GHG emissions of the heavy-duty truck fleet will continue to increase and will remain almost unchanged after 2025. The Aggressive, Moderate and Conservative FCV Scenarios will achieve 63%, 30% and 12% reductions, respectively, in GHG emissions in 2050 from the heavy duty truck fleet compared to the No FCV Scenario. Additional reductions are possible if the current source of hydrogen from fossil fuels was displaced with increased use of hydrogen from water electrolysis using non-fossil generated electricity.
Chen^, Xu, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “The Expanding Coal Power Fleet in Southeast Asia: Implications for Future CO2 Emissions and Electricity Generation.” Earth's Future 9, no. 12 (2021).Abstract
Coal combustion for power generation made up 30% of global CO2 emissions in 2018. To achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep global average temperatures below 2°C, power generation must be decarbonized globally by mid-century. This requires a rapid phase-out of coal-fired power generation. However, global coal power expansion continues, mostly in developing countries where electricity demand continues to increase. Since the early 2010s, Southeast Asia's coal power capacity expansion has been among the fastest in the world, following China and India, but its implications for the global climate and regional energy transition remain understudied. Here we examine Southeast Asia's power generation pipeline as of mid-2020 and evaluate its implications for the region's CO2 emissions over the plant lifetime as well as projected electricity generation between 2020-2030 in Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. We find that power plants under construction and planned in Southeast Asia as of 2020 will more than double the region's fossil fuel power generation capacity. If all fossil fuel plants under development are built, Southeast Asia's power sector CO2 emissions will increase by 72% from 2020 to 2030 and long-term committed emissions will double. Moreover, in Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, projected electricity generation from fossil fuel plants under development, combined with generation from renewable capacity targets and existing power capacity, will exceed future national electricity demand. As a result, fossil fuel plants will likely be underutilized and/or become stranded assets while also potentially crowding out renewable energy deployment.
Chen^, Xu, Zhongshu Li^, Kevin P. Gallagher, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Financing carbon lock-in in developing countries: Bilateral financing for power generation technologies from China, Japan, and the United States.” Applied Energy 300 (2021).Abstract
Power sector decarbonization requires a fundamental redirection of global finance from fossil fuel infrastructure towards low carbon technologies. Bilateral finance plays an important role in the global energy transition to non-fossil energy, but an understanding of its impact is limited. Here, for the first time, we compare the influence of overseas finance from the three largest economies – United States, China, and Japan – on power generation development beyond their borders and evaluate the associated long-term CO2 emissions. We construct a new dataset of Japanese and U.S. overseas power generation finance between 2000 and 2018 by analyzing their national development finance institutions’ press releases and annual reports and tracking their foreign direct investment at the power plant level. Synthesizing this new data with previously developed datasets for China, we find that the three countries’ overseas financing concentrated in fossil fuel power technologies over the studied period. Financing commitments from China, Japan, and the United States facilitated 101 GW, 95 GW, and 47 GW overseas power capacity additions, respectively. The majority of facilitated capacity additions are fossil fuel plants (64% for China, 87% for Japan, and 66% for the United States). Each of the countries’ contributions to non-hydro renewable generation was less than 15% of their facilitated capacity additions. Together, we estimate that overseas fossil fuel power financing through 2018 from these three countries will lock in 24 Gt CO2 emissions by 2060. If climate targets are to be met, replacing bilateral fossil fuel financing with financing of renewable technologies is crucial.
Li^, Zhongshu, Kevin Gallagher, Xu Chen^, Jiahai Yuan, and Denise L. Mauzerall. “Pushing out or pulling in? The determinants of Chinese energy finance in developing countries.” Energy Research & Social Science (2021).Abstract
China is now one of the world’s largest financiers and investors in the global electric power sector. While a number of important qualitative analyses have examined the determinants of Chinese energy finance, this paper deploys new data to perform the first econometric analysis to examine the determinants of Chinese overseas financing for electric power plants. Drawing on that earlier work, we examine a number of ‘push factors’ – incentives in China that facilitate investment abroad—and ‘pull factors’ – incentives in recipient countries that facilitate Chinese investment into their country. On the push side, we find that domestic overcapacity in China plays a key role in facilitating China’s development finance in these plants. On the pull side, we find that the size of local demand for new power projects and the resource potential for electric power in recipient countries are significantly correlated with the size of Chinese financing. We also find existing Chinese involvement in past power projects likely facilitates new Chinese overseas financing.
Xu, Ming, Glen T. Daigger, Chuanwu Xi, Jianguo Liu, Jiuhui Qu, Pedro J. Alvarez, Denise L. Mauzerall, and others. “U.S.−China Collaboration is Vital to Global Plans for a Healthy Environment and Sustainable Development.” Environmental Science & Technology 55 (2021).
Qin, Yue, Mi Zhou, Da Pan, Zbigniew Klimont, Daniel B. Gingerich, Denise L. Mauzerall, Lei Zhao, Gang He, and Jeffrey M. Bielicki. “Environmental Consequences of Potential Strategies for China to Prepare for Natural Gas Import Disruptions.” Environmental Science & Technology (2021).Abstract
Worldwide efforts to switch away from coal have increased the reliance on natural gas imports for countries with inadequate domestic production. In preparing for potential gas import disruptions, there have been limited attempts to quantify the environmental and human health impacts of different options and incorporate them into decision-making. Here, we analyze the air pollution, human health, carbon emissions, and water consumption impacts under a set of planning strategies to prepare for potentially fully disrupted natural gas imports in China. We find that, with China’s current natural gas storage capacity, compensating for natural gas import disruptions using domestic fossil fuels (with the current average combustion technology) could lead up to 23,300 (95% CI: 22,100–24,500) excess premature deaths from air pollution, along with increased carbon emissions and aggravated water stress. Improving energy efficiency, more progressive electrification and decarbonization, cleaner fossil combustion, and expanding natural gas storage capacity can significantly reduce the number of excess premature deaths and may offer opportunities to reduce negative carbon and water impacts simultaneously. Our results highlight the importance for China to increase the domestic storage capacity in the short term, and more importantly, to promote a clean energy transition to avoid potentially substantial environmental consequences under intensifying geopolitical uncertainties in China. Therefore, mitigating potential negative environmental impacts related to insecure natural gas supply provides additional incentives for China to facilitate a clean and efficient energy system transition.
Tao^, Yiheng, Ryan W. J. Edwards, Denise L. Mauzerall, and Michael A. Celia. “Strategic Carbon Dioxide Infrastructure to Achieve a Low-CarbonPower Sector in the Midwestern and South-Central United States.” Environmental Science & Technology (2021).Abstract
Large-scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) requires development of critical infrastructure to connect capture locations to geological storage sites. Here, we investigate what government policies would be required to make the development of CO2 pipelines and large-scale CCUS in the power sector economically viable. We focus on the transition from conventional coal to non-CO2-emitting natural gas-fired Allam-cycle power with CCUS and study a system in which 156 Allam-cycle power generators representing 100 GW of capacity send their captured CO2 emissions to three geological storage locations in the central United States through 7500 miles of new pipeline. Enabling policies for this system include low-interest government loans of approximately $20 billion for pipeline construction and an extended 20-year Section 45Q tax credit, or similar longer-term carbon price incentive. Additional policy support will be needed to enable initial construction of pipelines and early mover power generators, such as cost-sharing, governments assuming future demand risk, or increased subsidies to early movers. The proposed system will provide reliable, dispatchable, flexible zero-emission power generation, complementing the intermittent generation by renewables in a decarbonized U.S. power sector. The proposed pipeline network could also connect into future regional infrastructure networks and facilitate large-scale carbon management. Ocko, Ilissa B., T Sun, D Shindell, M. Oppenheimer, AN Hristov, S.W. Pacala, DL Mauzerall, Y Xu, and SP Hamburg. “Acting rapidly to deploy readily available methane mitigation measuresby sector can immediately slow global warming.” Environmental Research Letters (2021).Abstract Methane mitigation is essential for addressing climate change, but the value of rapidly implementing available mitigation measures is not well understood. In this paper, we analyze the climate benefits of fast action to reduce methane emissions as compared to slower and delayed mitigation timelines. We find that the scale up and deployment of greatly underutilized but available mitigation measures will have significant near-term temperature benefits beyond that from slow or delayed action. Overall, strategies exist to cut global methane emissions from human activities in half within the next ten years and half of these strategies currently incur no net cost. Pursuing all mitigation measures now could slow the global-mean rate of near-term decadal warming by around 30%, avoid a quarter of a degree Centigrade of additional global-mean warming by midcentury, and set ourselves on a path to avoid more than half a degree Centigrade by end of century. On the other hand, slow implementation of these measures may result in an additional tenth of a degree of global- mean warming by midcentury and 5% faster warming rate (relative to fast action), and waiting to pursue these measures until midcentury may result in an additional two tenths of a degree Centigrade by midcentury and 15% faster warming rate (relative to fast action). Slow or delayed methane action is viewed by many as reasonable given that current and on-the-horizon climate policies heavily emphasize actions that benefit the climate in the long-term, such as decarbonization and reaching net-zero emissions, whereas methane emitted over the next couple of decades will play a limited role in long-term warming. However, given that fast methane action can considerably limit climate damages in the near-term, it is urgent to scale up efforts and take advantage of this achievable and affordable opportunity as we simultaneously reduce carbon dioxide emissions. 2020 Pan, Da, Lei Tao, Kang Sun, Levi M. Golston, David J. Miller, Tong Zhu, Yue Qin, Yan Zhang, Denise L. Mauzerall, and Mark A. Zondlo. “Methane emissions from natural gas vehicles in China.” Nature Communications 11 (2020).Abstract Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) have been promoted in China to mitigate air pollution, yet our measurements and analyses show that NGV growth in China may have significant negative impacts on climate change. We conducted real-world vehicle emission measurements in China and found high methane emissions from heavy-duty NGVs (90% higher than current emission limits). These emissions have been ignored in previous emission estimates, leading to biased results. Applying our observations to life-cycle analyses, we found that switching to NGVs from conventional vehicles in China has led to a net increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since 2000. With scenario analyses, we also show that the next decade will be critical for China to reverse the trend with the upcoming China VI standard for heavy-duty vehicles. Implementing and enforcing the China VI standard is challenging, and the method demonstrated here can provide critical information regarding the fleet-level CH4 emissions from NGVs. Hess, Jeremy J., ..., and Denise L. Mauzerall. “Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions.” Environmental Health Perspectives 128, no. 11 (2020).Abstract ### Background: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers. ### Objective: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions. ### Methods: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies. ### Results: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting. ### Discussion: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745 Chen^, Xu, Kevin P. Gallagher, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Chinese Overseas Development Financing of Electric Power Generation: A Comparative Analysis.” One Earth 3 (2020): 491-503.Abstract IN BRIEF: The Paris climate goals require rapid decarbonization of the global power generation sector. To achieve this goal, it is critical to redirect international development finance away from fossil fuel toward renewable energy technologies. We find that East Asian national DFIs have committed to finance a new generation of coal power plants. However, China’s new domestic decarbonization goal, if extended to its overseas finance, will be enormously valuable in reducing future carbon emissions from recipient countries. SUMMARY: Global power generation must rapidly decarbonize by mid-century to meet the goal of stabilizing global warming below 2C. To meet this objective, multilateral development banks (MDBs) have gradually reduced fossil fuel and increased renewable energy financing. Meanwhile, globally active national development finance institutions (DFIs) from Japan and South Korea have continued to finance overseas coal plants. Less is known about the increasingly active Chinese DFIs. Here, we construct a new dataset of China’s policy banks’ overseas power generation financing and compare their technology choices and impact on generation capacity with MDBs and Japanese and South Korean DFIs. We find that Chinese DFI power financing since 2000 has dramatically increased, surpassing other East Asian national DFIs and the major MDBs’ collective public sector power financing in 2013. As most Chinese DFI financing is currently in coal, decarbonization of their power investments will be critical in reducing future carbon emissions from recipient countries. Guo^, Yixin, Youfan Chen, Timothy D. Searchinger, Mi Zhou^, Da Pan^, ..., and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Air quality, nitrogen use efficiency and food security in China are improved by cost-effective agricultural nitrogen management.” Nature Food 1 (2020).Abstract China’s gains in food production over the past four decades have been associated with substantial agricultural nitrogen losses, which contribute to air and water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and damage to human health. Here, we explore the potential to improve agricultural production practices that simultaneously increase yields while addressing these environmental challenges. We link agronomic research with air quality modelling for an integrated assessment of four improved nitrogen management strategies: improved farm management practices with nitrogen use reductions; machine deep placement of fertilizer; enhanced-efficiency fertilizer use; and improved manure management. We find that simultaneous implementation of the four strategies provides the largest benefits, which include: reductions in PM2.5 concentrations and associated premature deaths; increases in grain yields and grain nitrogen use efficiency; reductions in NO3− leaching and runoff and greenhouse gas emissions. Total benefits of US$30 billion per year exceed the US$18 billion per year in costs. Our findings indicate that policies that improve farmers’ agricultural nitrogen management in China will improve both food security and public health while addressing multiple environmental challenges. Similar increases in attention on agricultural policy around the world are likely to provide large benefits in food security, environmental integrity and public health. Liu, H, and DL Mauzerall+. “Costs of clean heating in China: Evidence from rural households in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.” Energy Economics 90 (2020).Abstract To address severe air pollution, the Chinese government plans to replace most residential coal stoves in northern China with clean heating devices by 2021. Coal stove replacement started in the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH)” region and is expanding throughout northern China. Removing coal stoves reduces air pollutant emissions and hence is beneficial for both air quality and public health, as well as offering greenhouse gas mitigation co-benefits. However, there is little discussion of the economic costs of various clean heating technologies. In this study, we estimate total annual costs (TAC, annualized capital costs plus annual operating costs) for rural households, across cities/counties in the BTH region, to replace their coal stoves with several prevalent clean options—air-source heat pumpswith fan coils (ASHPwF), electric resistance heaters with thermal storage (RHwTS), natural gas heaters (NGH), and clean coal briquettes with improved stoves (CCIS). We find: 1) Without subsidies, CCIS have the lowest TAC of all clean options. TAC of unsubsidized CCIS approximately doubles TAC of raw coal with improved stoves (RCIS), while unsubsidized electric/gas heaters cost 3–5 times more than RCIS. Thus, it is important for governments to financially support households' replacement of their coal stoves with clean heaters to facilitatewidespread adoption. 2)With subsidies, CCIS have the lowest TAC in all regions except Beijing. In Beijing, generous subsides make ASHPwF—themost energy-efficient option—have the lowest TAC. In Tianjin, TAC of subsidized ASHPwF are slightly higher than CCIS and NGH. Throughout Hebei, except for a few severely cold northern counties where gas prices are high, subsidized NGH have lower TAC than ASHPwF and RHwTS. 3) Cost competitiveness of ASHPwF increases as heat demand increases, (e.g., higher desired indoor temperatures, larger home sizes, etc.) indicating that ASHP are good options for households with larger home sizes and commercial buildings. 4) Substantial potential exists to reduce heating expenses by improving building energy efficiency particularly in severely cold regions. 5) Cost advantages of NGH vary sharply with gas prices. Riddick, SN, DL Mauzerall+, MA Celia, M Kang, and K Bandilla. “Variability observed over time in methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells.” International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 100 (2020).Abstract Recent studies have reported methane (CH4) emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells across the United States and the United Kingdom. These emissions can reach hundreds of kg CH4 per year per well and are important to include in greenhouse gas emission inventories and mitigation strategies. Emission estimates are generally based on single, short-term measurements that assume constant emission rates over both short (hours) and longer (months/years) time periods. To investigate this assumption, we measure CH4 missions from 18 abandoned oil and gas wells in the USA and the UK continuously over 24 h and then make repeat 24 -h measurements at a single site over 12 months. While the lack of historical records for these wells makes it impossible to determine the underlying leakage-pathways, we observed that CH4 emissions at all wells varied over 24 h (range 0.2-81,000 mg CH4 hr−1) with average emissions varying by a factor of 18 and ranging from factors of 1.1–142. We did not find a statistically significant relationship between the magnitude of emissions and variability or that variability is correlated with temperature, relative humidity or atmospheric pressure. The results presented here suggest high CH4 emission events tend to be short-lived, so short-term (< 1 h) sampling is likely to miss them. Our findings present the dynamic nature of CH4 emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells which should be considered when planning measurement methodologies and developing greenhouse gas inventories/mitigation strategies. Incorporation of these temporal dynamics could improve national greenhouse gas emissions inventories. Riddick, SN, DL Mauzerall+, MA Celia, G Allen, M Kang, and JC Riddick. “The calibration and deployment of a low-cost methane sensor.” Atmospheric Environment 230 (2020).Abstract Since 1850 the atmospheric mixing ratio of methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, has doubled. This increase is directly linked to an escalation in emissions from anthropogenic sources. An inexpensive means to identify and monitor CH4 emission sources and evaluate the efficacy of mitigation strategies is essential. However, sourcing reliable, low-cost, easy-to-calibrate sensors that are fit for purpose is challenging. A recent study showed that CH4 mixing ratio data from a low-power, low-cost CH4 sensor (Figaro TGS2600) agreed well with CH4 mixing ratios measured by a high precision sensor at mixing ratios between 1.85 ppm and 2 ppm. To investigate, as a proof of concept, if this low-cost sensor could be used to measure typical ambient CH4 mixing ratios, we operated a TGS2600 in conjunction with a Los Gatos Ultra-portable Greenhouse Gas Analyzer (UGGA) in controlled laboratory conditions. We then explored the sensor's long-term reliability by deploying the TGS2600 near an onshore gas terminal to calculate emissions from May to July 2018. Our initial studies showed that previously published linear algorithms could not convert TGS2600 output to CH4 mixing ratios measured by the UGGA. However, we derived a non-linear empirical relationship that could be used to reliably convert the output of a TGS2600 unit to CH4 mixing ratios over a range of 1.85–5.85 ppm that agree to a high-precision instrument output to ±0.01 ppm. Our study showed that the TGS2600 could be used to continuously measure variability in CH4 mixing ratios from 1.82 to 5.40 ppm for three months downwind of the gas terminal. Using a simplified Gaussian Plume approach, these mixing ratios correspond to an emission flux range of 0–238 g CH4 s−1, with average emission of 9.6 g CH4 s−1 from the currently active North Terminal and 1.6 g CH4 s−1 from the decommissioned South Terminal. Our work here demonstrates the feasibility of utilizing a low-cost sensor to detect methane leakage at concentrations close to ambient background levels, as long as the device is routinely calibrated with an accurate reference instrument. Having a widely deployed network of such low-cost CH4 sensors would allow improved identification, monitoring and mitigation of a variety of CH4 emissions. Fu, XW, SL Xiang, Y Liu, J Yu, DL Mauzerall, and S Tao. “High-resolution simulation of local traffic-related NOx dispersion and distribution in a complex urban terrain.” Environmental Pollution 263 (2020).Abstract Urban air pollution features large spatial and temporal variations due to the high heterogeneity in emissions and ventilation conditions, which render the pollutant distributions in complex urban terrains difficult to measure. Current urban air pollution models are not able to simulate pollutant dispersion and distribution at a low computational cost and high resolution. To address this limitation, we have developed the urban terrain air pollution (UTAP) dispersion model to investigate, at a spatial resolution of 5 m and a temporal resolution of 1 h, the distribution of the local traffic-related NOx concentration at the pedestrian level in a 1 × 1 km2 area in Baoding, Hebei, China. The UTAP model was shown to be capable of capturing the local pollution variations in a complex urban terrain at a low computational cost. We found that the local traffic-related NOx concentration along or near major roads (10–200 μg m−3) was 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than that in places far from roads (0.1–10 μg m−3). Considering the background pollution, the NO and NO2 concentrations exhibited similar patterns with higher concentrations in street canyons and lower concentrations away from streets, while the O3 concentration exhibited the opposite behavior. Sixty percent of the NOx concentration likely stemmed from local traffic when the background pollution level was low. Both the background wind speed and direction substantially impacted the overall pollution level and concentration variations, with a low wind speed and direction perpendicular to the axes of most streets identified as unfavorable pollutant dispersion conditions. Our results revealed a large variability in the local traffic-related air pollutant concentration at the pedestrian level in the complex urban terrain, indicating that high-resolution computationally efficient models such as the UTAP model are required to accurately estimate the pollutant exposure of urban residents. Li, Xiaoyuan, Denise L. Mauzerall+, and Mike H. Bergin. “Global reduction of solar power generation efficiency due to aerosols and panel soiling.” Nature-Sustainability (2020).Abstract Air pollution and dust prevail over many regions that have rapid growth of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation, potentially reducing PV generation. Here we combine solar PV performance modelling with long-term satellite-observation-constrained surface irradiance, aerosol deposition and precipitation rates to provide a global picture of the impact of particulate matter (PM) on PV generation. We consider attenuation caused by both atmospheric PM and PM deposition on panels (soiling) in calculating the overall effect of PM on PV generation, and include precipitation removal of soiling and the benefits of panel cleaning. Our results reveal that, with no cleaning and precipitation-only removal, PV generation in heavily polluted and desert regions is reduced by more than 50% by PM, with soiling accounting for more than two-thirds of the total reduction. Our findings highlight the benefit of cleaning panels in heavily polluted regions with low precipitation and the potential to increase PV generation through air-quality improvements. Gerlein-Safdi, Cynthia, Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, Feng Wang, Steve Frolking, and Denise L. Mauzerall. “Satellite Monitoring of Natural Reforestation Efforts in China’s Drylands.” One Earth 2 (2020): 98-108.Abstract China has been a leader in reforestation efforts with multiple large-scale projects. In this study, we found that satellite data sensitive to water and photosynthesis activity in plants in drylands is tightly linked to reforestation efforts in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program area. In particular, both traditional active reforestation and new natural reforestation increased vegetation activity. This is important because natural reforestation has advantages, such as increasing biodiversity. China’s successful implementation of natural reforestation could become a model for other regions. Li^, Zhongshu, Kevin P. Gallagher, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “China’s global power: Estimating Chinese foreign direct investment in the electric power sector.” Energy Policy 136 (2020): 1-9.Abstract We analyze the spatial and technological distribution of China’s overseas electric power investments around the world, and the pollution intensity of Chinese coal fired power plants relative to those held by non-Chinese entities. We find that Chinese firms hold approximately$115 billion USD in electric power assets globally, with an average of 73% ownership stake in a total capacity of 81 GW. Chinese power investments span the globe but are largely found in developing countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America. The vast majority of Chinese investment goes to coal (24.5 GW), gas (20.5 GW) and hydropower (18.1 GW), while the share of wind (7.2 GW) and solar (3.1 GW) is relatively small but may be rising. The energy mix of Chinese overseas investment is similar to the existing world portfolio. Within the coal sector, between 2011 and 2017, the majority of Chinese greenfield investment in coal used supercritical technologies (58 percent) while only 34 percent of non-Chinese coal plants built during this period were supercritical.
2019
Kang, Mary, Denise L. Mauzerall+, Daniel Z. Ma, and Michael A. Celia. “Reducing methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells: Strategies and costs.” Energy Policy 132 (2019): 594-601.Abstract
Well plugging, the main strategy for reducing methane emissions from millions of unplugged abandoned oil and gas (AOG) wells in the U.S. and abroad, is expensive and many wells remain unplugged. In addition, plugging does not necessarily reduce methane emissions and some categories of plugged wells are high emitters. We analyze strategies and costs of five options for reducing methane emissions from high-emitting AOG wells - those which are unplugged and plugged/vented gas wells. The five options are: plugging without gas venting, plugging with gas venting and flaring, plugging with gas venting and usage, gas flaring only, and gas capture/usage only. Average plugging costs ($37,000 per well) can be justified by the social cost of methane, which considers air quality, climate, and human/ecosystem impacts. Savings as measured by natural gas prices and alternative energy credits can offset low plugging costs (<$15,400 per well) but are not large enough to offset average plugging costs. Nonetheless, reducing methane emissions from AOG wells is a cost-effective strategy for addressing climate change that has comparable costs to some current greenhouse gas mitigation options and can produce co-benefits such as groundwater protection. Therefore, we recommend including the mitigation of AOG wells in climate and energy policies in the U.S., Canada, and other oil-and-gas-producing regions.
Riddick, Stuart N., Denise L. Mauzerall+, Michael Celia, Neil R. P. Harris, Grant Allen, Joseph Pitt, John Staunton-Sykes, et al.Methane emissions from oil and gas platforms in the North Sea.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19, no. 15 (2019): 9787–9796. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Since 1850 the concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, has more than doubled. Recent studies suggest that emission inventories may be missing sources and underestimating emissions. To investigate whether offshore oil and gas platforms leak CH4during normal operation, we measured CH4 mole fractions around eight oil and gas production platforms in the North Sea which were neither flaring gas nor offloading oil. We use the measurements from summer 2017, along with meteorological data, in a Gaussian plume model to estimate CH4 emissions from each platform. We find CH4 mole fractions of between 11 and 370 ppb above background concentrations downwind of the platforms measured, corresponding to a median CH4 emission of 6.8 g CH4 s−1 for each platform, with a range of 2.9 to 22.3 g CH4 s−1. When matched to production records, during our measurements individual platforms lost between 0.04 % and 1.4 % of gas produced with a median loss of 0.23 %. When the measured platforms are considered collectively (i.e. the sum of platforms' emission fluxes weighted by the sum of the platforms' production), we estimate the CH4 loss to be 0.19 % of gas production. These estimates are substantially higher than the emissions most recently reported to the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NAEI) for total CH4 loss from United Kingdom platforms in the North Sea. The NAEI reports CH4 losses from the offshore oil and gas platforms we measured to be 0.13 % of gas production, with most of their emissions coming from gas flaring and offshore oil loading, neither of which was taking place at the time of our measurements. All oil and gas platforms we observed were found to leak CH4 during normal operation, and much of this leakage has not been included in UK emission inventories. Further research is required to accurately determine total CH4 leakage from all offshore oil and gas operations and to properly include the leakage in national and international emission inventories.
Peng, Liqun, Qiang Zhang, Zhiliang Yao, Denise L. Mauzerall, Sicong Kang, Zhenyu Du, Yixuan Zheng, Tao Xue, and Kebin He. “Underreported coal in statistics: A survey-based solid fuel consumption and emission inventory for the rural residential sector in China.” Applied Energy 235 (2019): 1169-1182.Abstract
Solid fuel consumption and associated emissions from residential use are highly uncertain due to a lack of reliable statistics. In this study, we estimate solid fuel consumption and emissions from the rural residential sector in China by using data collected from a new nationwide field survey. We conducted a field survey in 2010 which covered ∼17,000 rural residential households in 183 counties in China, to obtain data for solid fuel consumption and use patterns. We then developed a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to establish the relationship between solid fuel consumption and heating degree days (HDD), income, coal production, coal price, and vegetation coverage, respectively. The GAM was used to estimate solid fuel consumption in rural households in China at the county level. We estimated that, in 2010, 179.8Tg of coal were consumed in Chinese rural households for heating and cooking, which is 62% higher than that reported in official energy statistics. We found that large quantities of rural residential coal consumption in the North China Plain were underreported in energy statistics. For instance, estimated coal consumption in rural households in Hebei (one of most polluted provinces in China) was 20.8Tg in 2010, which is twice as high as government statistics indicate. In contrast, modeled national total consumption of crop residues (used as fuels) we found to be ∼50% lower than reported data. Combining the underlying data from the survey, the GAM and emission factors from literature, we estimate emissions from China’s rural residential sector in 2010 to be: 3.3Tg PM2.5, 0.6Tg BC, 1.2Tg OC, 2.1Tg VOC, 2.3Tg SO2, 0.4Tg NOx, 43.6Tg CO and 727.2Tg CO2, contributing to 29%, 35%, 38% and 26% of national total PM2.5, BC, OC, and CO emissions respectively. This work reveals that current emission inventories in China likely underestimate emissions from coal combustion in rural residential households due to missing coal consumption in official statistics, especially for the heavily polluted North China Plain (NCP) region. Per capita income appears to be the driving factor that results in the difference between surveyed data and official data. Residents with high income prefer commercial energy and have a higher per capita fuel consumption than lower income residents. Therefore, rural residential coal combustion may contribute even more to regional air pollution than the large contributions previously identified.
Qin, Yue, Yuanyuan Fang, Xiaoyuan Li, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, Junfeng Liu, Noah Scovronick, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Source attribution of black carbon affecting regional air quality, premature mortality and glacial deposition in 2000.”  Atmospheric Environment 206 (2019): 144-155.Abstract
Black carbon (BC) mitigation can reduce adverse environmental impacts on climate, air quality, human health, and water resource availability. To facilitate the identification of mitigation priorities, we use a state-of-thescience global chemistry-climate coupled model (AM3), with additional tagged BC tracers representing regional (East Asia, South Asia, Europe and North America) and sectoral (land transport, residential, industry) anthropogenic BC emissions to identify sources with the largest impacts on air quality, human health and glacial deposition. We find that within each tagged region, domestic emissions dominate BC surface concentrations and associated premature mortality (generally over 90%), as well as BC deposition on glaciers (∼40–95% across glaciers). BC emissions occurring within each tagged source region contribute roughly 1–2 orders of magnitude more to their domestic BC concentrations, premature mortality, and BC deposition on regional glaciers than that caused by the same quantity of BC emitted from foreign regions. At the sectoral level, the South Asian residential sector contributes ∼60% of BC associated premature mortality in South Asia and ∼40–60% of total BC deposited on southern Tibetan glaciers. Our findings imply that BC mitigation within a source region, particularly from East and South Asian residential sectors, will bring the largest reductions in BC associated air pollution, premature mortality, and glacial deposition.
Riddick, Stuart N., Denise L. Mauzerall+, Michael A. Celia, Mary Kang, Kara Bressler, Christopher Chu, and Caleb D. Gum. “Measuring methane emissions from abandoned and active oil and gas wells in West Virginia.” Science of the Total Environment 651, no. 2 (2019): 1849-1856.Abstract
Recent studies have reported methane (CH4) emissions from abandoned and active oil and gas infrastructure across the United States, where measured emissions show regional variability. To investigate similar phenomena in West Virginia, we measure and characterize emissions from abandoned and active conventional oil and gas wells. In addition, we reconcile divergent regional CH4 emissions estimates by comparing our West Virginia emissions estimates with those from other states in the United States. We find the CH4 emission factors from 112 plugged and 147 unplugged wells in West Virginia are 0.1 g CH4 h−1 and 3.2 g CH4 h−1, respectively. The highest emitting unplugged abandoned wells in WV are those most recently abandoned, with the mean emission of wells abandoned between 1993 and 2015 of 16 g CH4 h−1 compared to the mean of those abandoned before 1993 of 3 × 10−3 g CH4 h−1. Using field observations at a historic mining area as a proxy for state-wide drilling activity in the late 19th/early 20th century, we estimate the number of abandoned wells in WV at between 60,000 and 760,000 wells. Methane emission factors from active conventional wells were estimated at 138 g CH4 h−1. We did not find an emission pattern relating to age of wells or operator for active wells, however, the CH4 emission factor for active conventional wells was 7.5 times larger than the emission factor used by the EPA for conventional oil and gas wells. Our results suggest that well emission factors for active and abandoned wells can vary within the same geologic formation and may be affected by differences in state regulations. Therefore, accounting for state-level variations is critical for accuracy in greenhouse gas emissions inventories, which are used to guide emissions reduction strategies.
2018
Qin, Yue, Fan Tong, Guang Yang, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Challenges of using natural gas as a carbon mitigation option in China.” Energy Policy 117 (2018): 457-462.Abstract
Under the Paris Agreement, China committed to peak its carbon dioxide emissions on or before 2030. Substituting natural gas for coal may facilitate it meeting this commitment. However, three major challenges may obstruct progress towards desired climate benefits from natural gas. 1) A fundamental price dilemma disincentivizing a coal-to-gas end-use energy transition: low city-gate gas prices discourage an increase in gas supplies while high end-use gas prices impede an increase in gas demand. 2) Insufficient and constrained access to natural gas infrastructure hinders connections between gas supplies and end-users, and obstructs a balance in seasonal supply and demand. 3) Methane leakage from the natural gas industry compromises the direct greenhouse gas emission reductions from combustion. To address these challenges, government and industry must work together to facilitate natural gas market reform, increase investment in natural gas infrastructure, and control methane emissions.
Yang^, Junnan, Xiaoyuan Li^, Wei Peng^, Fabian Wagner, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Climate, air quality and human health benefits of various solar photovoltaic deployment scenarios in China in 2030.” Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 6 (2018).Abstract
Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation can greatly reduce both air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil fuel electricity generation. The Chinese government plans to greatly scale up solar PV installation between now and 2030. However, different PV development pathways will influence the range of air quality and climate benefits. Benefits depend on how much electricity generated from PV is integrated into power grids and the type of power plant displaced. Using a coal-intensive power sector projection as the base case, we estimate the climate, air quality, and related human health benefits of various 2030 PV deployment scenarios. We use the 2030 government goal of 400 GW installed capacity but vary the location of PV installation and the extent of inter-provincial PV electricity transmission. We find that deploying distributed PV in the east with inter-provincial transmission maximizes potential CO2 reductions and air quality-related health benefits (4.2% and 1.2% decrease in national total CO2 emissions and air pollution-related premature deaths compared to the base case, respectively). Deployment in the east with inter-provincial transmission results in the largest benefits because it maximizes displacement of the dirtiest coal-fired power plants and minimizes PV curtailment, which is more likely to occur without inter-provincial transmission. We further find that the maximum co-benefits achieved with deploying PV in the east and enabling inter-provincial transmission are robust under various maximum PV penetration levels in both provincial and regional grids. We find large potential benefits of policies that encourage distributed PV deployment and facilitate inter-provincial PV electricity transmission in China.
Peng^, Wei, Junnan Yang^, Xi Lu, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Potential co-benefits of electrification for air quality, health, and CO2 mitigation in 2030 China.” Applied Energy (2018).Abstract
Electrification with decarbonized electricity is a central strategy for carbon mitigation. End-use electrification can also reduce air pollutant emissions from the demand sectors, which brings public health co-benefits. Here we focus on electrification strategies for China, a country committed to both reducing air pollution and peaking carbon emissions before 2030. Considering both coal-intensive and decarbonized power system scenarios for 2030, we assess the air quality, health and climate co-benefits of various end-use electrification scenarios for the vehicle and residential sectors relative to a non-electrified coal-intensive business-as-usual scenario (BAU). Based on an integrated assessment using the regional air pollution model WRF-Chem and epidemiological concentration–response relationships, we find that coal-intensive electrification (75% coal) does not reduce carbon emissions, but can bring significant air quality and health benefits (41,000–57,000 avoided deaths in China annually). In comparison, switching to a half decarbonized power supply (∼50% coal) for electrification of the transport and/or residential sectors leads to a 14–16% reduction in carbon emissions compared to BAU, as well as greater air quality and health co-benefits (55,000–69,000 avoided deaths in China annually) than coal intensive electrification. Furthermore, depending on which end-use sector is electrified, we find different regional distributions of air quality and health benefits. While electrifying the transport sector improves air quality throughout eastern China, electrifying the residential sector brings most benefits to the North China Plain region in winter where coal-based heating contributes substantially to air pollution.
Qin, Yue, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Edward Byers, Kuishuang Feng, Fabian Wagner, Wei Peng, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Air quality-carbon-water synergies and trade-offs in China's natural gas industry.” Nature Sustainability 1 (2018): 505-511.Abstract
Both energy production and consumption can simultaneously affect regional air quality, local water stress and the global climate. Identifying the air quality–carbon–water interactions due to both energy sources and end-uses is important for capturing potential co-benefits while avoiding unintended consequences when designing sustainable energy transition pathways. Here, we examine the air quality–carbon–water interdependencies of China’s six major natural gas sources and three end-use gasfor-coal substitution strategies in 2020. We find that replacing coal with gas sources other than coal-based synthetic natural gas (SNG) generally offers national air quality–carbon–water co-benefits. However, SNG achieves air quality benefits while increasing carbon emissions and water demand, particularly in regions that already suffer from high per capita carbon emissions and severe water scarcity. Depending on end-uses, non-SNG gas-for-coal substitution results in enormous variations in air quality, carbon and water improvements, with notable air quality–carbon synergies but air quality–water trade-offs. This indicates that more attention is needed to determine in which end-uses natural gas should be deployed to achieve the desired environmental improvements. Assessing air quality–carbon–water impacts across local, regional and global administrative levels is crucial for designing and balancing the co-benefits of sustainable energy development and deployment policies at all scales.
Peng, Wei, Fabian Wagner, M. V. Ramana, Haibo Zhai, Mitchell J. Small, Carole Dalin, Xin Zhang, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Managing China's coal power plants to address multiple environmental objectives.” Nature Sustainability 1 (2018): 693-701.Abstract
China needs to manage its coal-dominated power system to curb carbon emissions, as well as to address local environmental priorities such as air pollution and water stress. Here we examine three province-level scenarios for 2030 that represent various electricity demand and low-carbon infrastructure development pathways. For each scenario, we optimize coal power generation strategies to minimize the sum of national total coal power generation cost, inter-regional transmission cost and air pollution and water costs. We consider existing environmental regulations on coal power plants, as well as varying prices for air pollutant emissions and water to monetize the environmental costs. Comparing 2030 to 2015, we find lower CO2 emissions only in the scenarios with substantial renewable generation or low projected electricity demand. Meanwhile, in all three 2030 scenarios, we observe lower air pollution and water impacts than were recorded in 2015 when current regulations and prices for air pollutant emissions and water are imposed on coal power plants. Increasing the price of air pollutant emissions or water alone can lead to a tradeoff between these two objectives, mainly driven by differences between air pollution-oriented and water-oriented transmission system designs that influence where coal power plants will be built and retired.
2017
Qin, Yue, Ryan Edwards, Fan Tong, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Can Switching from Coal to Shale Gas Bring Net Carbon Reductions to China?Environmental Science & Technology (2017). Publisher's VersionAbstract
To increase energy security and reduce emissions of air pollutants and CO2from coal use, China is attempting to duplicate the rapid development of shale gas that has taken place in the United States. This work builds a framework to estimate the lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from China’s shale gas system and compares them with GHG emissions from coal used in the power, residential, and industrial sectors. We find the mean lifecycle carbon footprint of shale gas is about 30–50% lower than that of coal in all sectors under both 20 year and 100 year global warming potentials (GWP20 and GWP100). However, primarily due to large uncertainties in methane leakage, the upper bound estimate of the lifecycle carbon footprint of shale gas in China could be approximately 15–60% higher than that of coal across sectors under GWP20. To ensure net GHG emission reductions when switching from coal to shale gas, we estimate the breakeven methane leakage rates to be approximately 6.0%, 7.7%, and 4.2% in the power, residential, and industrial sectors, respectively, under GWP20. We find shale gas in China has a good chance of delivering air quality and climate cobenefits, particularly when used in the residential sector, with proper methane leakage control.
Li, Zhongshu, Junfeng Liu, Denise L. Mauzerall, Xiaoyuan Li, Songmiao Fan, Larry W. Horowitz, Cenlin He, Kan Yi, and Shu Tao. “A potential large and persistent black carbon forcing over Northern Pacific inferred from satellite observations.” Scientific Reports 7, no. 43429 (2017).Abstract
Black carbon (BC) aerosol strongly absorbs solar radiation, which warms climate. However, accurate estimation of BC’s climate effect is limited by the uncertainties of its spatiotemporal distribution, especially over remote oceanic areas. The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observation (HIPPO) program from 2009 to 2011 intercepted multiple snapshots of BC profiles over Pacific in various seasons, and revealed a 2 to 5 times overestimate of BC by current global models. In this study, we compared the measurements from aircraft campaigns and satellites, and found a robust association between BC concentrations and satellite-retrieved CO, tropospheric NO2, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) (R2>0.8). This establishes a basis to construct a satellite-based column BC approximation (sBC*) over remote oceans. The inferred sBC* shows that Asian outflows in spring bring much more BC aerosols to the midPacific than those occurring in other seasons. In addition, inter-annual variability of sBC* is seen over the Northern Pacific, with abundances varying consistently with the springtime Pacific/North American (PNA) index. Our sBC* dataset infers a widespread overestimation of BC loadings and BC Direct Radiative Forcing by current models over North Pacific, which further suggests that large uncertainties exist on aerosol-climate interactions over other remote oceanic areas beyond Pacific.
Guo, Yixin, Junfeng Liu, Denise L. Mauzerall, Xiaoyuan Li, Larry W. Horowitz, Wei Tao, and Shu Tao. “Long-Lived species enhance summertime attribution of North American ozone to upwind sources.” Environmental Science & Technology 51, no. 9 (2017): 5017-5025.Abstract
Ground-level ozone (O3), harmful to most living things, is produced from both domestic and foreign emissions of anthropogenic precursors. Previous estimates of the linkage from distant sources rely on the sensitivity approach (i.e., modeling the change of ozone concentrations that result from modifying precursor emissions) as well as the tagging approach (i.e., tracking ozone produced from specific O3 precursors emitted from one region). Here, for the first time, we tag all O3 precursors (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) from East Asia and explicitly track their physicochemical evolution without perturbing the nonlinear O3 chemistry. We show that, even in summer, when intercontinental influence on ozone has typically been found to be weakest, nearly 3 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) seasonal average surface O3 over North America can be attributed to East Asian anthropogenic emissions, compared with 0.7 ppbv using the sensitivity approach and 0.5 ppbv by tagging reactive nitrogen oxides. Considering the acute effects of O3 exposure, approximately 670 cardiovascular and 300 respiratory premature mortalities within North America could be attributed to East Asia. CO and longer-lived VOCs, largely overlooked in previous studies, extend the influence of regional ozone precursors emissions and, thus, greatly enhance O3 attribution to source region.
Peng, Wei, Junnan Yang, Fabian Wagner, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Substantial air quality and climate co-benefits achievable now with sectoral mitigation strategies in China.” Science of the Total Environment 598 (2017): 1076-1084.Abstract
China is the world's top carbon emitter and suffers from severe air pollution. We examine near-term air quality and CO2 co-benefits of various current sector-based policies in China. Using a 2015 base case, we evaluate the potential benefits of four sectoral mitigation strategies. All scenarios include a 20% increase in conventional air pollution controls as well as the following sector-specific fuel switching or technology upgrade strategies. Power sector (POW): 80% replacement of small coal power plants with larger more efficient ones; Industry sector (IND): 10% improvement in energy efficiency; Transport sector (TRA): replacement of high emitters with average vehicle fleet emissions; and Residential sector (RES): replacement of 20% of coal-based stoves with stoves using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Conducting an integrated assessment using the regional air pollution model WRFChem, we find that the IND scenario reduces national air-pollution-related deaths the most of the four scenarios examined (27,000, 24,000, 13,000 and 23,000 deaths reduced annually in IND, POW, TRA and RES, respectively). In addition, the IND scenario reduces CO2 emissions more than 8 times as much as any other scenario (440, 53, 0 and 52 Mt CO2 reduced in IND, POW, TRA and RES, respectively). We also examine the benefits of an industrial efficiency improvement of just 5%. We find the resulting air quality and health benefits are still among the largest of the sectoral scenarios, while the carbon mitigation benefits remain more than 3 times larger than any other scenario. Our analysis hence highlights the importance of even modest industrial energy efficiency improvements and air pollution control technology upgrades for air quality, health and climate benefits in China.
Peng, Wei, Jiahai Yuan, Yu Zhao, Meiyun Lin, Qiang Zhang, David G Victor, and Denise L Mauzerall+. “Air quality and climate benefits of long-distance electricity transmission in China.” Environmental Research Letters 12, no. 6 (2017).Abstract
China is the world’s top carbon emitter and suffers from severe air pollution. It has recently made commitments to improve air quality and to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030. We examine one strategy that can potentially address both issues—utilizing long-distance electricity transmission to bring renewable power to the polluted eastern provinces. Based on an integrated assessment using state-of-the-science atmospheric modeling and recent epidemiological evidence, we find that transmitting a hybrid of renewable (60%) and coal power (40%) (Hybrid-by-wire) reduces 16% more national air-pollution-associated deaths and decreases three times more carbon emissions than transmitting only coal-based electricity. Moreover, although we find that transmitting coal power (Coal-by-Wire, CbW) is slightly more effective at reducing air pollution impacts than replacing old coal power plants with newer cleaner ones in the east (Coal-by-Rail, CbR) (CbW achieves a 6% greater reduction in national total air-pollution-related mortalities than CbR), both coal scenarios have approximately the same carbon emissions. We thus demonstrate that coordinating transmission planning with renewable energy deployment is critical to maximize both local air quality benefits and global climate benefits.
Qin, Yue, Fabian Wagner, Noah Scovronick, Wei Peng, Junnan Yang, Tong Zhu, Kirk R. Smith, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Air quality, health, and climate implications of China's synthetic natural gas development.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114, no. 19 (2017): 4887-4892.Abstract
Facing severe air pollution and growing dependence on natural gas imports, the Chinese government plans to increase coal-based synthetic natural gas (SNG) production. Although displacement of coal with SNG benefits air quality, it increases CO2 emissions. Due to variations in air pollutant and CO2 emission factors and energy efficiencies across sectors, coal replacement with SNG results in varying degrees of air quality benefits and climate penalties. We estimate air quality, human health, and climate impacts of SNG substitution strategies in 2020. Using all production of SNG in the residential sector results in an annual decrease of ∼32,000 (20,000 to 41,000) outdoor-air-pollutionassociated premature deaths, with ranges determined by the low and high estimates of the health risks. If changes in indoor/household air pollution were also included, the decrease would be far larger. SNG deployment in the residential sector results in nearly 10 and 60 times greater reduction in premature mortality than if it is deployed in the industrial or power sectors, respectively. Due to inefficiencies in current household coal use, utilization of SNG in the residential sector results in only 20 to 30% of the carbon penalty compared with using it in the industrial or power sectors. Even if carbon capture and storage is used in SNG production with today’s technology, SNG emits 22 to 40% more CO2 than the same amount of conventional gas. Among the SNG deployment strategies we evaluate, allocating currently planned SNG to households provides the largest air quality and health benefits with the smallest carbon penalties
Li, Xiaoyuan, Fabian Wagner, Wei Peng, Junnan Yang, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Reduction of solar photovoltaic resources due to air pollution in China.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2017).Abstract
Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation is expanding rapidly in China, with total capacity projected to be 400 GW by 2030. However, severe aerosol pollution over China reduces solar radiation reaching the surface. We estimate the aerosol impact on solar PV electricity generation at the provincial and regional grid levels in China. Our approach is to examine the 12-year (2003–2014) average reduction in point-of-array irradiance (POAI) caused by aerosols in the atmosphere. We apply satellite-derived surface irradiance data from the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) with a PV performance model (PVLIB-Python) to calculate the impact of aerosols and clouds on POAI. Our findings reveal that aerosols over northern and eastern China, the most polluted regions, reduce annual average POAI by up to 1.5 kWh/m2 per day relative to pollution-free conditions, a decrease of up to 35%. Annual average reductions of POAI over both northern and eastern China are about 20–25%. We also evaluate the seasonal variability of the impact and find that aerosols in this region are as important as clouds in winter. Furthermore, we find that aerosols decrease electricity output of tracking PV systems more than those with fixed arrays: over eastern China, POAI is reduced by 21% for fixed systems at optimal angle and 34% for two-axis tracking systems. We conclude that PV system performance in northern and eastern China will benefit from improvements in air quality and will facilitate that improvement by providing emission-free electricity.
2016
Westervelt, D.M., L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, APK Tai, AM Fiore, and DL Mauzerall+. “Quantifying PM2.5-meteorology sensitivities in a global climate model.” Atmospheric Environment 142 (2016): 43-56. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 μg m−3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by −0.06 μg m−3 (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 μg m−3 for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006–2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10–50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized “climate penalty” of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5concentrations.
Liu, Jun, Denise L. Mauzerall+, Qi Chen, Qiang Zhang, Yu Song, Wei Peng, Zbigniew Klimont, et al.Air pollutant emissions from Chinese households: A major and underappreciated ambient pollution source.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (2016).Abstract
As part of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government has developed air pollution prevention and control plans for key regions with a focus on the power, transport, and industrial sectors. Here, we investigate the contribution of residential emissions to regional air pollution in highly polluted eastern China during the heating season, and find that dramatic improvements in air quality would also result from reduction in residential emissions. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry to evaluate potential residential emission controls in Beijing and in the Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei (BTH) region. In January and February 2010, relative to the base case, eliminating residential emissions in Beijing reduced daily average surface PM2.5 (particulate mater with aerodynamic diameter equal or smaller than 2.5 micrometer) concentrations by 14 ± 7 μg·m−3 (22 ± 6% of a baseline concentration of 67 ± 41 μg·m−3 ; mean ± SD). Eliminating residential emissions in the BTH region reduced concentrations by 28 ± 19 μg·m−3 (40 ± 9% of 67 ± 41 μg·m−3 ), 44 ± 27 μg·m−3 (43 ± 10% of 99 ± 54 μg·m−3 ), and 25 ± 14 μg·m−3 (35 ± 8% of 70 ± 35 μg·m−3 ) in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces, respectively. Annually, elimination of residential sources in the BTH region reduced emissions of primary PM2.5 by 32%, compared with 5%, 6%, and 58% achieved by eliminating emissions from the transportation, power, and industry sectors, respectively. We also find air quality in Beijing would benefit substantially from reductions in residential emissions from regional controls in Tianjin and Hebei, indicating the value of policies at the regional level.
Sun, Kang, Lei Tao, David J. Miller, Da Pan, Levi M. Golston, Mark A. Zondlo, Robert J. Griffin, et al.Vehicle Emissions as an Important Urban Ammonia Source in the United States and China.” Environmental Science & Technology (2016).
Kanter, David R, Xin Zhang, Denise L Mauzerall+, Sergey Malyshev, and Elena Shevliakova. “The importance of climate change and nitrogen use efficiency for future nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture.” Environ. Res. Lett. 44, no. 2 (2016).Abstract
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance. Previous projections of agricultural N2O (the dominant anthropogenic source)show emissions changing in tandem, or at a faster rate than changes in nitrogen (N) consumption. However, recent studies suggest that the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect may increase plant N uptake, which could decrease soil N losses and dampen increases in N2O. To evaluate this hypothesis at a global scale, we use a process-based land model with a coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle to examine how changes in climatic factors, land-use, and N application rates could affect agricultural N2O emissions by 2050. Assuming little improvement in N use efficiency (NUE), the model projects a 24%–31% increase in global agricultural N2O emissions by 2040–2050 depending on the climate scenario—a relatively moderate increase compared to the projected increases in N inputs(42%–44%) and previously published emissions projections(38%–75%). This occurs largely because the CO2 fertilization effect enhances plant N uptake in several regions, which subsequently dampens N2O emissions. And yet, improvements in NUE could still deliver important environmental benefits by 2050: equivalent to 10 Pg CO2 equivalent and 0.6 Tg ozone depletion potential.
Kang, Mary, Shanna Christian, Michael A. Celia, Denise L. Mauzerall, Markus Bill, Alana R. Miller, Yuheng Chen, Mark E. Conrad, Thomas H. Darrah, and Robert B. Jackson. “Identification and characterization of high methane-emitting abandoned oil and gas wells.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (2016).Abstract
Recent measurements of methane emissions from abandoned oil/gas wells show that these wells can be a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere, particularly from a small proportion of highemitting wells. However, identifying high emitters remains a challenge. We couple 163 well measurements of methane flow rates; ethane, propane, and n-butane concentrations; isotopes of methane; and noble gas concentrations from 88 wells in Pennsylvania with synthesized data from historical documents, field investigations, and state databases. Using our databases, we (i) improve estimates of the number of abandoned wells in Pennsylvania; (ii) characterize key attributes that accompany high emitters, including depth, type, plugging status, and coal area designation; and (iii) estimate attribute-specific and overall methane emissions from abandoned wells. High emitters are best predicted as unplugged gas wells and plugged/vented gas wells in coal areas and appear to be unrelated to the presence of underground natural gas storage areas or unconventional oil/gas production. Repeat measurements over 2 years show that flow rates of high emitters are sustained through time. Our attribute-based methane emission data and our comprehensive estimate of 470,000–750,000 abandoned wells in Pennsylvania result in estimated state-wide emissions of 0.04–0.07 Mt (1012 g) CH4 per year. This estimate represents 5–8% of annual anthropogenic methane emissions in Pennsylvania. Our methodology combining new field measurements with data mining of previously unavailable well attributes and numbers of wells can be used to improve methane emission estimates and prioritize cost-effective mitigation strategies for Pennsylvania and beyond.
2015
Westervelt, DM, L. W. Horowitz, V. Naik, and DL Mauzerall+. “Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases.” Atmos. Chem. Phys. 15 (2015): 12681-12703.Abstract
Dalin, Carole, Huanguang Qiu, Naota Hanasaki, Denise L. Mauzerall, and Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe. “Balancing water resource conservation and food security in China.” Proceeding of the National Academy of Science (2015).Abstract
China’s economic growth is expected to continue into the next decades, accompanied by sustained urbanization and industrialization. The associated increase in demand for land, water resources, and rich foods will deepen the challenge of sustainably feeding the population and balancing agricultural and environmental policies. We combine a hydrologic model with an economic model to project China’s future food trade patterns and embedded water resources by 2030 and to analyze the effects of targeted irrigation reductions on this system, notably on national agricultural water consumption and food self-sufficiency. We simulate interprovincial and international food trade with a general equilibrium welfare model and a linear programming optimization, and we obtain province-level estimates of commodities’ virtual water content with a hydrologic model. We find that reducing irrigated land in regions highly dependent on scarce river flow and nonrenewable groundwater resources, such as Inner Mongolia and the greater Beijing area, can improve the efficiency of agriculture and trade regarding water resources. It can also avoid significant consumption of irrigation water across China (up to 14.8 km3 /y, reduction by 14%), while incurring relatively small decreases in national food self-sufficiency (e.g., by 3% for wheat). Other researchers found that a national, rather than local, water policy would have similar effects on food production but would only reduce irrigation water consumption by 5%.
Zhang, Xin, Denise L. Mauzerall+, Eric A. Davidson, David R. Kanter, and Ruohong Cai. “The Economic and Environmental Consequences of Implementing Nitrogen-Efficient Technologies and Management Practices in Agriculture.” Journal of Environmental Quality 44, no. 2 (2015): 312-324.Abstract
Technologies and management practices (TMPs) that reduce the application of nitrogen (N) fertilizer while maintaining crop yields can improve N use efciency (NUE) and are important tools for meeting the dual challenges of increasing food production and reducing N pollution. However, because farmers operate to maximize their profts, incentives to implement TMPs are limited, and TMP implementation will not always reduce N pollution. Therefore, we have developed the NUE Economic and Environmental impact analytical framework (NUE3 ) to examine the economic and environmental consequences of implementing TMPs in agriculture, with a specifc focus on farmer profts, N fertilizer consumption, N losses, and cropland demand. Our analytical analyses show that impact of TMPs on farmers’ economic decision-making and the environment is afected by how TMPs change the yield ceiling and the N fertilization rate at the ceiling and by how the prices of TMPs, fertilizer, and crops vary. Technologies and management practices that increase the yield ceiling appear to create a greater economic incentive for farmers than TMPs that do not but may result in higher N application rates and excess N losses. Nevertheless, the negative environmental impacts of certain TMPs could be avoided if their price stays within a range determined by TMP yield response, fertilizer price, and crop price. We use a case study on corn production in the midwestern United States to demonstrate how NUE3 can be applied to farmers’ economic decision-making and policy analysis. Our NUE3 framework provides an important tool for policymakers to understand how combinations of fertilizer, crop, and TMP prices afect the possibility of achieving win-win outcomes for farmers and the environment.
Zhang, Xin, Eric A. Davidson, Denise L. Mauzerall, Timothy D. Searchinger, Patrice Dumas, and Ye Shen. “Managing nitrogen for sustainable development.” Nature (2015): 51-59.Abstract
Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them.
2014
Shen, Z, J Liu, L. W. Horowitz, D. K. Henze, S. Fan, Levy II H, DL Mauzerall, J-T Lin, and S Tao. “Analysis of Transpacific Transport of Black Carbon during HIPPO-3: Implications for Black Carbon Aging.” Atmos. Chem. Phys. 14 (2014): 6315-6327.Abstract
Long-range transport of black carbon (BC) is a growing concern as a result of the efficiency of BC in warming the climate and its adverse impact on human health. We study transpacific transport of BC during HIPPO-3 using a combination of inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint to constrain Asian BC emissions and estimate the source of BC over the North Pacific. We find that different sources of BC dominate the transport to the North Pacific during the southbound (29 March 2010) and northbound (13 April 2010) measurements in HIPPO-3. While biomass burning in Southeast Asia (SE) contributes about 60 % of BC in March, more than 90 % of BC comes from fossil fuel and biofuel combustion in East Asia (EA) during the April mission. GEOS-Chem simulations generally resolve the spatial and temporal variation of BC concentrations over the North Pacific, but are unable to reproduce the low and high tails of the observed BC distribution. We find that the optimized BC emissions derived from inverse modeling fail to improve model simulations significantly. This failure indicates that uncertainties in BC removal as well as transport, rather than in emissions, account for the major biases in GEOS-Chem simulations of BC over the North Pacific. The aging process, transforming BC from hydrophobic into hydrophilic form, is one of the key factors controlling wet scavenging and remote concentrations of BC. Sensitivity tests on BC aging (ignoring uncertainties of other factors controlling BC long range transport) suggest that in order to fit HIPPO-3 observations, the aging timescale of anthropogenic BC from EA may be several hours (faster than assumed in most global models), while the aging process of biomass burning BC from SE may occur much slower, with a timescale of a few days. To evaluate the effects of BC aging and wet deposition on transpacific transport of BC, we develop an idealized model of BC transport. We find that the mid-latitude air masses sampled during HIPPO-3 may have experienced a series of precipitation events, particularly near the EA and SE source region. Transpacific transport of BC is sensitive to BC aging when the aging rate is fast; this sensitivity peaks when the aging timescale is in the range of 1–1.5 d. Our findings indicate that BC aging close to the source must be simulated accurately at a process level in order to simulate better the global abundance and climate forcing of BC.
Reid, Matthew C., Kaiyu Guan, Fabian Wagner, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Global Methane Emissions from Pit Latrines.” Environmental Science & Technology 48, no. 15 (2014): 8727-8734.Abstract
Pit latrines are an important form of decentralized wastewater management, providing hygienic and low-cost sanitation for approximately one-quarter of the global population. Latrines are also major sources of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) from the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in pits. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit approach to account for local hydrological control over the anaerobic condition of latrines and use this analysis to derive a set of country-specific emissions factors and to estimate global pit latrine CH4 emissions. Between 2000 and 2015 we project global emissions to fall from 5.2 to 3.8 Tg y−1 , or from ∼2% to ∼1% of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions, due largely to urbanization in China. Two and a half billion people still lack improved sanitation services, however, and progress toward universal access to improved sanitation will likely drive future growth in pit latrine emissions. We discuss modeling results in the context of sustainable water, sanitation, and hygiene development and consider appropriate technologies to ensure hygienic sanitation while limiting CH4 emissions. We show that low-CH4 on-site alternatives like composting toilets may be price competitive with other CH4 mitigation measures in organic waste sectors, with marginal abatement costs ranging from 57 to 944 $/ton carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in Africa and 46 to 97$/ton CO2e in Asia.
Li, Xiaoyuan, Junfeng Liu, Denise L. Mauzerall+, Louisa K. Emmons, Stacy Walters, Larry W. Horowitz, and Shu Tao. “Effects of Trans-Eurasian Transport of Air Pollutants on Surface Ozone Concentrations over Western China.” Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmosphere (2014). Publisher's VersionAbstract
Due to a lack of industrialization in Western China, surface air there was, until recently, believed to be relatively unpolluted. However, recent measurements and modeling studies have found high levels of ozone (O3) there. Based on the state‐of‐the‐science global chemical transport model MOZART‐4, we identify the origin, pathway, and mechanism of trans‐Eurasian transport of air pollutants to Western China in 2000. MOZART‐4 generally simulates well the observed surface O3 over inland areas of China. Simulations find surface ozone concentrations over Western China on average to be about 10 ppbv higher than Eastern China. Using sensitivity studies, we find that anthropogenic emissions from all Eurasian regions except China contribute 10–15 ppbv surface O3 over Western China, superimposed upon a 35–40 ppbv natural background. Transport from European anthropogenic sources to Northwestern China results in 2–6 ppbv O3 enhancements in spring and summer. Indian anthropogenic sources strongly influence O3 over the Tibetan Plateau during the summer monsoon. Transport of O3originating from emissions in the Middle East occasionally reach Western China and increase surface ozone there by about 1–4 ppbv. These influences are of similar magnitude as trans‐Pacific and transatlantic transport of O3 and its precursors, indicating the significance of trans‐Eurasian ozone transport in hemispheric transport of air pollution. Our study further indicates that mitigation of anthropogenic emissions from Europe, the Indian subcontinent, and the Middle East could benefit public health and agricultural productivity in Western China.
Dalin, Carole, Naota Hanasak, Huanguang Qiu, Denise L. Mauzerall, and Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe. “Water resources transfers through Chinese interprovincial and foreign food trade.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 27 (2014).Abstract
China’s water resources are under increasing pressure from socioeconomic development, diet shifts, and climate change. Agriculture still concentrates most of the national water withdrawal. Moreover, a spatial mismatch in water and arable land availability—with abundant agricultural land and little water resources in the north—increases water scarcity and results in virtual water transfers from drier to wetter regions through agricultural trade. We use a general equilibrium welfare model and linear programming optimization to model interprovincial food trade in China. We combine these trade flows with province-level estimates of commodities’ virtual water content to build China’s domestic and foreign virtual water trade network. We observe large variations in agricultural water-use efficiency among provinces. In addition, some provinces particularly rely on irrigation vs. rainwater. We analyze the virtual water flow patterns and the corresponding water savings. We find that this interprovincial network is highly connected and the flow distribution is relatively homogeneous. A significant share of water flows is from international imports (20%), which are dominated by soy (93%). We find that China’s domestic food trade is efficient in terms of rainwater but inefficient regarding irrigation, meaning that dry, irrigation-intensive provinces tend to export to wetter, less irrigation-intensive ones. Importantly, when incorporating foreign imports, China’s soy trade switches from an inefficient system to a particularly efficient one for saving water resources (20 km3 /y irrigation water savings, 41 km3 /y total). Finally, we identify specific provinces (e.g., Inner Mongolia) and products (e.g., corn) that show high potential for irrigation productivity improvements.
Kang, Mary, Cynthia M. Kanno, Matthew C. Reid, Xin Zhang, Denise L. Mauzerall, Michael A. Celia, Yuheng Chen, and Tullis C. Onstott. “Direct measurements of methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania.” Proceeding of the National Academy of Science (2014).Abstract
Abandoned oil and gas wells provide a potential pathway for subsurface migration and emissions of methane and other fluids to the atmosphere. Little is known about methane fluxes from the millions of abandoned wells that exist in the United States. Here, we report direct measurements of methane fluxes from abandoned oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania, using static flux chambers. A total of 42 and 52 direct measurements were made at wells and at locations near the wells (“controls”) in forested, wetland, grassland, and river areas in July, August, October 2013 and January 2014, respectively. The mean methane flow rates at these well locations were 0.27 kg/d/well, and the mean methane flow rate at the control locations was 4.5 × 10−6 kg/d/location. Three out of the 19 measured wells were high emitters that had methane flow rates that were three orders of magnitude larger than the median flow rate of 1.3 × 10−3 kg/d/well. Assuming the mean flow rate found here is representative of all abandoned wells in Pennsylvania, we scaled the methane emissions to be 4–7% of estimated total anthropogenic methane emissions in Pennsylvania. The presence of ethane, propane, and n-butane, along with the methane isotopic composition, indicate that the emitted methane is predominantly of thermogenic origin. These measurements show that methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells can be significant. The research required to quantify these emissions nationally should be undertaken so they can be accurately described and included in greenhouse gas emissions inventories.
Kanter, David R, Xin Zhang, and Denise L. Mauzerall. “Reducing Nitrogen Pollution while Decreasing Farmers' Costs and Increasing Fertilizer Industry Profits.” Journal of Environmental Quality 44, no. 2 (2014): 325-335.Abstract
Nitrogen (N) pollution is emerging as one of the most important environmental issues of the 21st Century, contributing to air and water pollution, climate change, and stratospheric ozone depletion. With agriculture being the dominant source, we tested whether it is possible to reduce agricultural N pollution in a way that benefits the environment, reduces farmers’ costs, and increases fertilizer industry profitability, thereby creating a “sweet spot” for decision-makers that could significantly increase the viability of improved N management initiatives. Although studies of the economic impacts of improved N management have begun to take into account farmers and the environment, this is the first study to consider the fertilizer industry. Our “sweet spot” hypothesis is evaluated via a cost-benefit analysis of moderate and ambitious N use efficiency targets in U.S. and China corn sectors over the period 2015–2035. We use a blend of publicly available crop and energy price projections, original time-series modeling, and expert elicitation. The results present a mixed picture: although the potential for a “sweet spot” exists in both countries, it is more likely that one occurs in China due to the currently extensive overapplication of fertilizer, which creates a greater potential for farmers and the fertilizer industry to gain economically from improved N management. Nevertheless, the environmental benefits of improving N management consistently dwarf the economic impacts on farmers and the fertilizer industry in both countries, suggesting that viable policy options could include incentives to farmers and the fertilizer industry to increase their support for N management policies.
2013
Fang, Yuanyuan, Denise L. Mauzerall+, Junfeng Liu, Arlene M. Fiore, and Larry W. Horowitz. “Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality.” Climatic Change 121 (2013): 239-253.Abstract
Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O3 concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 % confidence interval, CI, of 66–130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 % CI, 576–1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O3 exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 % CI, 1,600–10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions.
Fang, Yuanyuan, Vaishali Naik, Larry W. Horowitz, and Denise L. Mauzerall+. “Air pollution and associated human mortality: The role of air pollutant emissions, climate change and methane concentration increases from the preindustrial period to the present.” Atmospheric Chemistry Physics (2013).Abstract
Increases in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 µm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) are associated with excess premature human mortalities. We estimate changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 from pre-industrial (1860) to present (2000) and the global present-day (2000) premature human mortalities associated with these changes. We extend previous work to differentiate the contribution of changes in three factors: emissions of short-lived air pollutants, climate change, and increased methane (CH4) concentrations, to air pollution levels and associated premature mortalities. We use a coupled chemistry-climate model in conjunction with global population distributions in 2000 to estimate exposure attributable to concentration changes since 1860 from each factor. Attributable mortalities are estimated using health impact functions of long-term relative risk estimates for O3 and PM2.5 from the epidemiology literature. We find global mean surface PM2.5 and health-relevant O3 (defined as the maximum 6-month mean of 1-h daily maximum O3 in a year) have increased by 8 ± 0.16 µg m−3 and 30 ± 0.16 ppbv (results reported as annual average ±standard deviation of 10-yr model simulations), respectively, over this industrial period as a result of combined changes in emissions of air pollutants (EMIS), climate (CLIM) and CH4 concentrations (TCH4). EMIS, CLIM and TCH4 cause global population-weighted average PM2.5 (O3) to change by +7.5 ± 0.19 µg m−3 (+25 ± 0.30 ppbv), +0.4 ± 0.17 µg m−3 (+0.5 ± 0.28 ppbv), and 0.04 ± 0.24 µg m−3 (+4.3 ± 0.33 ppbv), respectively. Total global changes in PM2.5 are associated with 1.5 (95 % confidence interval, CI, 1.2–1.8) million cardiopulmonary mortalities and 95 (95 % CI, 44–144) thousand lung cancer mortalities annually and changes in O3 are associated with 375 (95 % CI, 129–592) thousand respiratory mortalities annually. Most air pollution mortality is driven by changes in emissions of short-lived air pollutants and their precursors (95 % and 85 % of mortalities from PM2.5 and O3 respectively). However, changing climate and increasing CH4 concentrations also contribute to premature mortality associated with air pollution globally (by up to 5 % and 15 %, respectively). In some regions, the contribution of climate change and increased CH4 together are responsible for more than 20 % of the respiratory mortality associated with O3 exposure. We find the interaction between climate change and atmospheric chemistry has influenced atmospheric composition and human mortality associated with industrial air pollution. Our study highlights the benefits to air quality and human health of CH4 mitigation as a component of future air pollution control policy.
Konar, M., Z. Hussein, N. Hanasak, D. L. Mauzerall, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe. “Virtual water trade flows and savings under climate change.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 10 (2013): 67-101. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Smith, Kirk R., Howard Frumkin, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Colin D. Butler, Zoe A. Chafe, Ian Fairlie, Patrick Kinney, et al.Energy and Human Health.” Annual Review of Public Health 34 (2013): 159-188.Abstract
Energy use is central to human society and provides many health benefits. But each source of energy entails some health risks. This article reviews the health impacts of each major source of energy, focusing on those with major implications for the burden of disease globally. The biggest health impacts accrue to the harvesting and burning of solid fuels, coal and biomass, mainly in the form of occupational health risks and household and general ambient air pollution. Lack of access to clean fuels and electricity in the world’s poor households is a particularly serious risk for health. Although energy efficiency brings many benefits, it also entails some health risks, as do renewable energy systems, if not managed carefully. We do not review health impacts of climate change itself, which are due mostly to climate-altering pollutants from energy systems, but do discuss the potential for achieving near-term health cobenefits by reducing certain climate-related emissions.
Kanter, David, Denise L. Mauzerall+, A. R. Ravishankara, John S. Daniel, Robert W. Portmann, Peter M. Grabiel, William R. Moomaw, and James N. Galloway. “A post-Kyoto partner: Considering the stratospheric ozone regime as a tool to manage nitrous oxide.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2013).Abstract
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the largest known remaining anthropogenic threat to the stratospheric ozone layer. However, it is currently only regulated under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol because of its simultaneous ability to warm the climate. The threat N2O poses to the stratospheric ozone layer, coupled with the uncertain future of the international climate regime, motivates our exploration of issues that could be relevant to the Parties to the ozone regime (the 1985 Vienna Convention and its 1987 Montreal Protocol) should they decide to take measures to manage N2O in the future. There are clear legal avenues to regulate N2O under the ozone regime as well as several ways to share authority with the existing and future international climate treaties. N2O mitigation strategies exist to address the most significant anthropogenic sources, including agriculture, where behavioral practices and new technologies could contribute significantly to reducing emissions. Existing policies managing N2O and other forms of reactive nitrogen could be harnessed and built on by the ozone regime to implement N2O controls. There are several challenges and potential cobenefits to N2O control which we discuss here: food security, equity, and implications of the nitrogen cascade. The possible inclusion of N2O in the ozone regime need not be viewed as a sign of failure of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to adequately deal with climate change. Rather, it could represent an additional valuable tool in sustainable development diplomacy
Avnery, Shiri, Denise L. Mauzeral+l, and Arlene M. Fiore. “Increasing global agricultural production by reducing ozone damages via methane emission controls and ozoneresistant cultivar selection.” Global Change Biology 19 (2013): 1285-1299.Abstract
Meeting the projected 50% increase in global grain demand by 2030 without further environmental degradation poses a major challenge for agricultural production. Because surface ozone (O3) has a significant negative impact on crop yields, one way to increase future production is to reduce O3-induced agricultural losses. We present two strategies whereby O3 damage to crops may be reduced. We first examine the potential benefits of an O3 mitigation strategy motivated by climate change goals: gradual emission reductions of methane (CH4), an important greenhouse gas and tropospheric O3 precursor that has not yet been targeted for O3 pollution abatement. Our second strategy focuses on adapting crops to O3 exposure by selecting cultivars with demonstrated O3 resistance. We find that the CH4 reductions considered would increase global production of soybean, maize, and wheat by 23–102 Mt in 2030 – the equivalent of a ~2–8% increase in year 2000 production worth $3.5–15 billion worldwide (USD2000), increasing the cost effectiveness of this CH4 mitigation policy. Choosing crop varieties with O3 resistance (relative to median-sensitivity cultivars) could improve global agricultural production in 2030 by over 140 Mt, the equivalent of a 12% increase in 2000 production worth ~$22 billion. Benefits are dominated by improvements for wheat in South Asia, where O3-induced crop losses would otherwise be severe. Combining the two strategies generates benefits that are less than fully additive, given the nature of O3 effects on crops. Our results demonstrate the significant potential to sustainably improve global agricultural production by decreasing O3-induced reductions in crop yields.
2012
Robertson, GP, TW Bruulsema, R Gehl, D Kanter, DL Mauzerall, A Rotz, and C. Williams. “Climate-Nitrogen Interactions in Agriculture.” In The Role of Nitrogen in Climate Change and the Impacts of Nitrogen-Climate Interactions on Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems, Agriculture, and Human Health in the United States. A Technical Report Submitted to the US National Climate Assessment. Falmouth, MA: North American Nitrogen Center of the International Nitrogen Initiative (NANC-INI), Woods Hole Research Center, 2012. Publisher's Version
Smith, KR, K Balakrishnan, C Butler, Z Chafe, I Fairlie, P Kinney, T Kjellstrom, et al.Energy and Health.” In Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2012.
Robertson, G. Philip, Tom W. Bruulsema, Ron J. Gehl, David Kanter, Denise L. Mauzerall, C. Alan Rotz, and Candiss O. Williams. “Nitrogen-climate interactions in US agriculture.” Biogeochemistry (2012).Abstract
Agriculture in the United States (US) cycles large quantities of nitrogen (N) to produce food, fuel, and fiber and is a major source of excess reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the environment. Nitrogen lost from cropping systems and animal operations moves to waterways, groundwater, and the atmosphere. Changes in climate and climate variability may further affect the ability of agricultural systems to conserve N. The N that escapes affects climate directly through the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), and indirectly through the loss of nitrate (NO3 -), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia to downstream and downwind ecosystems that then emit some of the N received as N2O and NOx. Emissions of NOx lead to the formation of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas that can also harm crops directly. There are many opportunities to mitigate the impact of agricultural N on climate and the impact of climate on agricultural N. Some are available today; many need further research; and all await effective incentives to become adopted. Research needs can be grouped into four major categories: (1) an improved understanding of agricultural N cycle responses to changing climate; (2) a systems-level understanding of important crop and animal systems sufficient to identify key interactions and feedbacks; (3) the further development and testing of quantitative models capable of predicting N-climate interactions with confidence across a wide variety of crop-soil-climate combinations; and (4) socioecological research to better understand the incentives necessary to achieve meaningful deployment of realistic solutions.
2011
Saikawa, E, J Kurokawa, M Takigawa, J Borken-Kleefeld, DL Mauzerall, L. W. Horowitz, and T Ohara. “The impact of China’s vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 (2011): 9465-9484.Abstract
The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS) for China’s road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol), and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles). The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles) were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), we examine the regional air quality response to China’s vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) from China’s vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50 % relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3) mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 µg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in neighboring countries are also reduced by more than 3 ppbv and 1 µg m−3 , respectively. We find that effective regulation of China’s road transport sector will be of significant benefit for air quality both within China and across East Asia as well.
Mauzerall, Denise L.Methane Mitigation – Benefits for air quality, health, crop yields, and climate.” IGAC Newsletter (2011): 17-18.
Jacob, D. J., DL Mauzerall, JM Fernandez, and WT Pennell. “Global Change and Air Quality.” In Technical challenges of multipollutant air quality management, 395-432. Springer, 2011.
Kopacz, M, DL Mauzerall+, J Wang, EM Leibensperger, DK Henze, and K Singh. “Origin and radiative forcing of black carbon transported to the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.” Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11 (2011): 2837-2852.Abstract
The remote and high elevation regions of central Asia are influenced by black carbon (BC) emissions from a variety of locations. BC deposition contributes to melting of glaciers and questions exist, of both scientific and policy interest, as to the origin of the BC reaching the glaciers. We use the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model to identify the location from which BC arriving at a variety of locations in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau originates. We then calculate its direct and snow-albedo radiative forcing. We analyze the seasonal variation in the origin of BC using an adjoint sensitivity analysis, which provides a detailed map of the location of emissions that directly contribute to black carbon concentrations at receptor locations. We find that emissions from northern India and central China contribute the majority of BC to the Himalayas, although the precise location varies with season. The Tibetan Plateau receives most BC from western and central China, as well as from India, Nepal, the Middle East, Pakistan and other countries. The magnitude of contribution from each region varies with season and receptor location. We find that sources as varied as African biomass burning and Middle Eastern fossil fuel combustion can significantly contribute to the BC reaching the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. We compute radiative forcing in the snow-covered regions and find the forcing due to the BC induced snow-albedo effect to vary from 5–15 W m−2 within the region, an order of magnitude larger than radiative forcing due to the direct effect, and with significant seasonal variation in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Radiative forcing from reduced snow albedo likely accelerates glacier melting. Our analysis may help inform mitigation efforts to slow the rate of glacial melt by identifying regions that make the largest contributions to BC deposition in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.
Avnery, Shiri, Denise L. Mauzerall+, Junfeng Liu, and Larry W. Horowitz. “Global Crop Yield Reductions due to Surface Ozone Exposure: 2. Year 2030 Potential Crop Production Losses and Economic Damage under Two Scenarios of O3 Pollution.” Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011): 2297-2309.Abstract
We examine the potential global risk of increasing surface ozone (O3) exposure to three key staple crops (soybean, maize, and wheat) in the near future (year 2030) according to two trajectories of O3 pollution: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 storylines, which represent upper- and lower-boundary projections, respectively, of most O3 precursor emissions in 2030. We use simulated hourly O3 concentrations from the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 2.4 (MOZART-2), satellite-derived datasets of agricultural production, and field-based concentration:response relationships to calculate crop yield reductions resulting from O3 exposure. We then calculate the associated crop production losses and their economic value. We compare our results to the estimated impact of O3 on global agriculture in the year 2000, which we assessed in our companion paper [Avnery et al., 2011]. In the A2 scenario we find global year 2030 yield loss of wheat due to O3 exposure ranges from 5.4 to 26% (a further reduction in yield of þ1.5e10% from year 2000 values), 15e19% for soybean (reduction of þ0.9e11%), and 4.4e8.7% for maize (reduction of þ2.1e3.2%) depending on the metric used, with total global agricultural losses worth $17e35 billion USD2000 annually (an increase of þ$6e17 billion in losses from 2000). Under the B1 scenario, we project less severe but still substantial reductions in yields in 2030: 4.0e17% for wheat (a further decrease in yield of þ0.1e1.8% from 2000), 9.5e15% for soybean (decrease of þ0.7e1.0%), and 2.5e6.0% for maize (decrease of þ 0.3e0.5%), with total losses worth $12e21 billion annually (an increase of þ$1e3 billion in losses from 2000). Because our analysis uses crop data from the year 2000, which likely underestimates agricultural production in 2030 due to the need to feed a population increasing from approximately 6 to 8 billion people between 2000 and 2030, our calculations of crop production and economic losses are highly conservative. Our results suggest that O3 pollution poses a growing threat to global food security even under an optimistic scenario of future ozone precursor emissions. Further efforts to reduce surface O3 concentrations thus provide an excellent opportunity to increase global grain yields without the environmental degradation associated with additional fertilizer application or land cultivation.
Avnery, Shiri, Denise L. Mauzerall+, Junfeng Liu, and Larry W. Horowitz. “Global Crop Yield Reductions due to Surface Ozone Exposure: 1. Year 2000 Crop Production Losses and Economic Damage.” Atmospheric Environment 45 (2011): 2284-2296.Abstract
Exposure to elevated concentrations of surface ozone (O3) causes substantial reductions in the agricultural yields of many crops. As emissions of O3 precursors rise in many parts of the world over the next few decades, yield reductions from O3 exposure appear likely to increase the challenges of feeding a global population projected to grow from 6 to 9 billion between 2000 and 2050. This study estimates year 2000 global yield reductions of three key staple crops (soybean, maize, and wheat) due to surface ozone exposure using hourly O3 concentrations simulated by the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 2.4 (MOZART-2). We calculate crop losses according to two metrics of ozone exposure e seasonal daytime (08:00e19:59) mean O3 (M12) and accumulated O3 above a threshold of 40 ppbv (AOT40) e and predict crop yield losses using crop-specific O3 concentration:response functions established by field studies. Our results indicate that year 2000 O3-induced global yield reductions ranged, depending on the metric used, from 8.5e14% for soybean, 3.9e15% for wheat, and 2.2e5.5% for maize. Global crop production losses totaled 79e121 million metric tons, worth $11e18 billion annually (USD2000). Our calculated yield reductions agree well with previous estimates, providing further evidence that yields of major crops across the globe are already being substantially reduced by exposure to surface ozone e a risk that will grow unless O3-precursor emissions are curbed in the future or crop cultivars are developed and utilized that are resistant to O3. 2010 Zhang, J., DL Mauzerall, T Zhu, S Liang, M Ezzati, and J Remais. “Environmental health in China: challenges to achieving clean air and safe water.” The Lancet 375 (2010): 1110–19.Abstract Environmental risk factors, especially air and water pollution, are a major source of morbidity and mortality in China. Biomass fuel and coal are burned for cooking and heating in almost all rural and many urban households, resulting in severe indoor air pollution that contributes greatly to the burden of disease. Many communities lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation, and thus the risk of waterborne disease in many regions is high. At the same time, China is rapidly industrialising with associated increases in energy use and industrial waste. Although economic growth from industrialisation has improved health and quality of life indicators, it has also increased the release of chemical toxins into the environment and the rate of environmental disasters, with severe eff ects on health. Air quality in China’s cities is among the worst in the world, and industrial water pollution has become a widespread health hazard. Moreover, emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases from energy use are rapidly increasing. Global climate change will inevitably intensify China’s environmental health troubles, with potentially catastrophic outcomes from major shifts in temperature and precipitation. Facing the overlap of traditional, modern, and emerging environmental dilemmas, China has committed substantial resources to environmental improvement. The country has the opportunity to address its national environmental health challenges and to assume a central role in the international eff ort to improve the global environment. Kopp, RE, and DL Mauzerall+. “Assessing the climatic benefits of black carbon mitigation.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010).Abstract To limit mean global warming to 2 °C, a goal supported by more than 100 countries, it will likely be necessary to reduce emissions not only of greenhouse gases but also of air pollutants with high radiative forcing (RF), particularly black carbon (BC). Although several recent research papers have attempted to quantify the effects of BC on climate, not all these analyses have incorporated all the mechanisms that contribute to its RF (including the effects of BC on cloud albedo, cloud coverage, and snow and ice albedo, and the optical consequences of aerosol mixing) and have reported their results in different units and with different ranges of uncertainty. Here we attempt to reconcile their results and present them in uniform units that include the same forcing factors. We use the best estimate of effective RF obtained from these results to analyze the benefits of mitigating BC emissions for achieving a specific equilibrium temperature target. For a 500 ppm CO2e (3.1Wm−2) effective RF target in 2100, which would offer about a 50% chance of limiting equilibrium warming to 2.5 °C above preindustrial temperatures, we estimate that failing to reduce carbonaceous aerosol emissions from contained combustion would require CO2 emission cuts about 8 years (range of 1–15 years) earlier than would be necessary with full mitigation of these emissions. 2009 Saikawa, E, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, J Liu, and DL Mauzerall+. “Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing.” Atmospheric Environment 43 (2009): 2814–2822.Abstract Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), a sulfate (SO4 2) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct radiative effects and indirect effects on clouds, SO4 2 and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China’s emissions of SO2, SO4 2, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing (RF). Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration–response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to RF in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause approximately 470 000 premature deaths in China and an additional 30 000 deaths globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a 50% reduction in premature deaths from the 2000 level to 240 000 in China and 10 000 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths increase 50% from the 2000 level to 720 000 in China and to 40 000 elsewhere. Because the negative RF from SO4 2 and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct RF of 74 mW m2 in 2000 and between 15 and 97 mW m2 in 2030 depending on the emissions scenario. Our analysis indicates that increased effort to reduce greenhouse gases is essential to address climate change as China’s anticipated reduction of aerosols will result in the loss of net negative radiative forcing. Liu, J, DL Mauzerall+, and L. W. Horowitz. “Evaluating Inter-continental transport of fine aerosols: (2) Global Health Impacts.” Atmospheric Environment (2009).Abstract In this second of two companion papers, we quantify for the first time the global impact on premature mortality of the inter-continental transport of fine aerosols (including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and mineral dust) using the global modeling results of (Liu et al., 2009). Our objective is to estimate the number of premature mortalities in each of ten selected continental regions resulting from fine aerosols transported from foreign regions in approximately year 2000. Our simulated annual mean population-weighted (P-W) concentrations of total PM2.5 (aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 mm) are highest in East Asia (EA, 30 mg m3 ) and lowest in Australia (3.6 mg m3 ). Dust is the dominant component of PM2.5 transported between continents. We estimate global annual premature mortalities (for adults age 30 and up) due to inter-continental transport of PM2.5 to be nearly 380 thousand (K) in 2000. Approximately half of these deaths occur in the Indian subcontinent (IN), mostly due to aerosols transported from Africa and the Middle East (ME). Approximately 90K deaths globally are associated with exposure to foreign (i.e., originating outside a receptor region) non-dust PM2.5. More than half of the premature mortalities associated with foreign non-dust aerosols are due to aerosols originating from Europe (20K), ME (18K) and EA (15K); and nearly 60% of the 90K deaths occur in EA (21K), IN (19K) and Southeast Asia (16K). The lower and higher bounds of our estimated 95% confidence interval (considering uncertainties from the concentration–response relationship and simulated aerosol concentrations) are 18% and 240% of the estimated deaths, respectively, and could be larger if additional uncertainties were quantified. We find that in 2000 nearly 6.6K premature deaths in North America (NA) were associated with foreign PM2.5 exposure (5.5K from dust PM2.5). NA is least impacted by foreign PM2.5 compared to receptors on the Eurasian continent. However, the number of premature mortalities associated with foreign aerosols in NA (mostly occurring in the U.S.) is comparable to the reduction in premature mortalities expected to result from tightening the U.S. 8-h O3 standard from 0.08 ppmv to 0.075 ppmv. International efforts to reduce inter-continental transport of fine aerosol pollution would substantially benefit public health on the Eurasian continent and would also benefit public health in the United States. Liu, J, DL Mauzerall+, L. W. Horowitz, P. Ginoux, and AM Fiore. “Evaluating Inter-continental transport of fine aerosols: (1) Methodology, global aerosol distribution and optical depth.” Atmospheric Environment (2009).Abstract Our objectives are to evaluate inter-continental source-receptor relationships for fine aerosols and to identify the regions whose emissions have dominant influence on receptor continents. We simulate sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and mineral dust aerosols using a global coupled chemistry-aerosol model (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis meteorology for 1997–2003 and emissions approximately representing year 2000. The concentrations of simulated aerosol species in general agree within a factor of 2 with observations, except that the model tends to overestimate sulfate over Europe in summer, underestimate BC and OC over the western and southeastern (SE) U.S. and Europe, and underestimate dust over the SE U.S. By tagging emissions from ten continental regions, we quantify the contribution of each region’s emissions on surface aerosol concentrations (relevant for air quality) and aerosol optical depth (AOD, relevant for visibility and climate) globally. We find that domestic emissions contribute substantially to surface aerosol concentrations (57–95%) over all regions, but are responsible for a smaller fraction of AOD (26–76%). We define ‘‘background’’ aerosols as those aerosols over a region that result from inter-continental transport, DMS oxidation, and emissions from ships or volcanoes. Transport from other continental source regions accounts for a substantial portion of background aerosol concentrations: 36–97% for surface concentrations and 38–89% for AOD. We identify the Region of Primary Influence (RPI) as the source region with the largest contribution to the receptor’s background aerosol concentrations (or AOD). We find that for dust Africa is the RPI for both aerosol concentrations and AOD over all other receptor regions. For non-dust aerosols (particularly for sulfate and BC), the RPIs for aerosol concentrations and AOD are identical for most receptor regions. These findings indicate that the reduction of the emission of non-dust aerosols and their precursors from an RPI will simultaneously improve both air quality and visibility over a receptor region. 2008 Liu, J, DL Mauzerall+, and L. W. Horowitz. “Source-Receptor Relationships between East Asian Sulfur Dioxide Emissions and Northern Hemisphere Sulfate Concentrations.” Atmos. Chem. Phys 8 (2008): 3721–3733. Publisher's VersionAbstract We analyze the effect of varying East Asian (EA) sulfur emissions on sulfate concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere, using a global coupled oxidant-aerosol model (MOZART-2). We conduct a base and five sensitivity simulations, in which sulfur emissions from each continent are tagged, to establish the source-receptor (S-R) relationship between EA sulfur emissions and sulfate concentrations over source and downwind regions. We find that from west to east across the North Pacific, EA sulfate contributes approximately 80%–20% of sulfate at the surface, but at least 50% at 500 hPa. Surface sulfate concentrations are dominated by local anthropogenic sources. Of the sulfate produced from sources other than local anthropogenic emissions (defined here as “background” sulfate), EA sources account for approximately 30%–50% (over the Western US) and 10%– 20% (over the Eastern US). The surface concentrations of sulfate from EA sources over the Western US are highest in MAM (up to 0.15µg/m3 ), and lowest in DJF (less than 0.06µg/m3 ). Reducing EA SO2 emissions will significantly decrease the spatial extent of the EA sulfate influence (represented by the areas where at least 0.1µg m−3 of sulfate originates from EA) over the North Pacific both at the surface and at 500 hPa in all seasons, but the extent of influence is insensitive to emission increases, particularly in DJF and JJA. We find that EA sulfate concentrations over most downwind regions respond nearly linearly to changes in EA SO2 emissions, but sulfate concentrations over the EA source region increase more slowly than SO2 emissions, particularly at the surface and in winter, due to limited availability of oxidants (in particular of H2O2, which oxidizes SO2 to sulfate in the aqueous phase). We find that similar estimates of the S-R relationship for trans-Pacific transport of EA sulfate would be obtained using either sensitivity (i.e., varying emissions from a region to examine the effects on downwind concentrations) or tagging techniques. Our findings suggest that future changes in EA sulfur emissions may cause little change in the sulfate-induced health impact over downwind continents. However, SO2 emission reductions may significantly reduce the sulfate concentrations and the resulting negative radiative forcing over the North Pacific and the United States, thus providing a warming tendency. Tong, DQ, and DL Mauzerall+. “Summertime State-Level Source-Receptor Relationships between Nitrogen Oxide Emissions and Downwind Surface Ozone Concentrations over the Continental United States.” Environmental Science & Technology (2008).Abstract Interstate transport of ozone (O3) and its precursors can contribute substantially to state-level surface O3 concentrations, making it difficult for some states to meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for O3 by limiting only their own emissions. We analyze the effect of interstate transport on surface O3 in each continental U.S. state in July 1996 using the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model. By examining the difference between a baseline simulation and perturbation simulations in which each state’s nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions are removed, we establish for the first time a summertime source-receptor matrixfor all 48 continental states. We find that for 16 (20) states at least one neighboring state’s NOx emissions are responsible for a larger increase in monthly mean peak 8 h (all-hour) O3 concentrations than the state’s own emissions. For over 80% of the contiguous states, interstatetransport is more importantthan local emissions for summertime peak O3 concentrations. Our source-receptor matrices indicate that the geographic range of the clean air interstate rule (CAIR) was sufficient to address interstate transport of O3 in most of the states included in the program. However, the exclusion of Texas, which has particularly large NOx emissions, from the CAIR O3 program left emission sources uncontrolled that contribute more than 1 ppbv to the July mean of peak8hO3 concentrations in over a dozen states. 2007 Xu, S., P. Jaffe, and D. L. Mauzerall. “A Process-based Model for Methane Emission from Flooded Rice Paddy Systems.” Ecological Modeling 205 (2007): 475-491.Abstract Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Rice paddy soils release approximately 15–20% of total methane emitted to the atmosphere. A processbased methane emission model was developed for rice paddy systems that highlights plant mediated methane transport. Sequential utilization of alternative electron acceptors such as oxygen, nitrate, Mn(IV), Fe(III) and sulfate in flooded soils is included and permits examination of the effects of fertilizer application and field drainage on methane emissions. Acetate and hydrogen, two representative electron donors produced from the biologically mediated decomposition of solid organic matter, are assumed to be the substrates driving the electron transfer processes. Effects of temperature on reaction kinetics and diffusion processes are based on empirical relationships observed in the laboratory and field. Other processes considered include the exudation of organic carbon and radial release of oxygen from roots, the infiltration flow induced by plant transpiration, the growth dynamics of rice plants, the vertical distribution of soil organic carbon and root biomass, dieback of roots, and loss of gaseous species through ebullition. The performance of the model is evaluated using methane flux data collected in Chongqing and Sichuan, China. Model simulations reveal that although hybrid rice cultivars are several times more efficient in mediating methane transport than traditional tall cultivars at seedling stage, the development of methane transport capacity over the growing season leads to a relatively small difference in total seasonal methane flux (∼15%) among fields planted with tall and hybrid cultivars. Application of nitrate fertilizer at a rate of 64 kg N/ha (about 50% of total nitrogen applied at the Chongqing site) could reduce methane emission by 7%. By converting both iron and manganese to oxidized forms, pre-season drainage is found to be able to reduce methane emissions by 8–10%. A 1-week drainage of a rice field during the growing season could further reduce the methane emission by 22–23% and might be a very promising methane-emission mitigation technique, since such drainage practices can also conserve water and improve rice yields. This model will be implemented on a national scale to establish national methane emission inventories and to evaluate the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of various mitigation options that could vary from site to site. West, J.J., A.M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, and D. L. Mauzerall. “Ozone Air Quality and Radiative Forcing Consequences of Changes in Ozone Precursor Emissions.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 (2007). Naik, V., D. L. Mauzerall, L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, V. Ramaswamy, and M. Oppenheimer. “Sensitivity of Radiative Forcing from Biomass Burning Aerosols and Ozone to Emission Location.” Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 (2007). Liu, J., and D. L. Mauzerall+. “Evaluating the potential influence of inter-continental transport of sulfate aerosols on air quality.” Environmental Research Letters 2 (2007). Publisher's Version 2006 Tong, D.Q., and D. L. Mauzerall. “Spatial variability of summertime tropospheric ozone over the continental United States: Implications of an evaluation of the CMAQ model.” Atmospheric Environment 40 (2006): 3041-3056.Abstract This study evaluates the ability of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate the spatial variability of summertime ozone (O3) at the surface and in the free troposphere over the continental United States. Simulated surface O3 concentrations are compared with 987 Air Quality System (AQS) sites and 123 Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) sites. CMAQ’s ability to reproduce surface observations varies with O3 concentration. The model best simulates observed O3 for intermediate concentrations (40–60 ppbv), while over-(under-) predicting at lower (higher) levels. CMAQ reproduces surface O3 for a wide range of conditions (30–80 ppbv) with a normalized mean error (NME) less than 35% and normalized mean bias (NMB) lying between 715% for the whole domain. Although systematically over-predicting O3 in the east and under-predicting it in the western United States, CMAQ is able to reproduce 1- and 8-h daily maxima with a cross-domain mean bias (MB) of 1 and 8 ppbv, or NMB of 8% and 25%, respectively. The model underestimates observed O3 at rural sites (MB ¼ 5 ppbv, NMB ¼ 5% and NME ¼ 23% with a 40 ppbv cut-off value) and over-predicts it at urban and suburban sites by a similar magnitude (MB ¼ 6 ppbv, NMB ¼ 7% and NME ¼ 25%). Apparent errors and biases decrease when data is averaged over longer periods, suggesting that most evaluation statistics are dependent on the time scale of data aggregation. Therefore, performance criteria should specify an averaging period (e.g., 1- or 8- h) and not be independent of averaging period as some current model evaluation studies imply. Comparisons of vertical profiles of simulated O3 with ozonesonde data show both overestimation and underestimation by 10–20 ppbv in the lower troposphere and a consistent under-prediction in the upper troposphere. Vertical O3 distributions are better simulated when lateral boundary conditions obtained from the global Model of Ozone and Related Tracers version 2 (MOZART-2) are used, but under-prediction remains. The assumption of zero-flux at the top boundary and the resulting exclusion of the contribution of stratosphere–troposphere exchange to tropospheric O3 concentrations limit the ability of CMAQ to reproduce O3 concentrations in the upper troposphere. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Wang, X., and D. L. Mauzerall. “Evaluating Impacts of Air Pollution in China on Public Health: Implications for Future Air Pollution and Energy Policies.” Atmospheric Environment 40, no. 9 (2006): 1706-1721.Abstract Our objective is to establish the link between energy consumption and technologies, air pollution concentrations, and resulting impacts on public health in eastern China. We use Zaozhuang, a city in eastern China heavily dependent on coal, as a case study to quantify the impacts that air pollution in eastern China had on public health in 2000 and the benefits in improved air quality and health that could be obtained by 2020, relative to business-as-usual (BAU), through the implementation of best available emission control technology (BACT) and advanced coal gasification technologies (ACGT). We use an integrated assessment approach, utilizing state-of-the-science air quality and meteorological models, engineering, epidemiology, and economics, to achieve this objective. We find that total health damages due to year 2000 anthropogenic emissions from Zaozhuang, using the ‘‘willingness-to-pay’’ metric, was equivalent to 10% of Zaozhuang’s GDP. If all health damages resulting from coal use were internalized in the market price of coal, the year 2000 price would have more than tripled. With no new air pollution controls implemented between 2000 and 2020 but with projected increases in energy use, we estimate health damages from air pollution exposure to be equivalent to 16% of Zaozhuang’s projected 2020 GDP. BACT and ACGT (with only 24% penetration in Zaozhuang and providing 2% of energy needs in three surrounding municipalities) could reduce the potential health damage of air pollution in 2020 to 13% and 8% of projected GDP, respectively. Benefits to public health, of substantial monetary value, can be achieved through the use of BACT; health benefits from the use of ACGT could be even larger. Despite significant uncertainty associated with each element of the integrated assessment approach, we demonstrate that substantial benefits to public health could be achieved in this region of eastern China through the use of additional pollution controls and particularly from the use of advanced coal gasification technology. Without such controls, the impacts of air pollution on public health, presently considerable, will increase substantially by 2020. Tong, D.Q., N.Z. Muller, D. L. Mauzerall, and R.O. Mendelsohn. “Integrated Assessment of the Spatial Variability of Ozone Impacts from Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides.” Environmental Science and Technology 40, no. 5 (2006): 1395-1400.Abstract This paper examines the ozone (O3) damages caused by nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions in different locations around the Atlanta metropolitan area during a summer month. We calculate O3 impacts using a new integrated assessment model that links pollution emissions to their chemical transformation, transport, population exposures, and effects on human health. We find that increased NOx emissions in rural areas around Atlanta increase human exposure to ambient O3 twice as much as suburban emissions. However, increased NOx emissions in central city Atlanta actually reduce O3 exposures. For downtown emissions, the reduction in human exposures to O3 from titration by NO in the central city outweighs the effects from increased downwind O3. The results indicate that the marginal damage from NOx emissions varies greatly across a metropolitan area. The results raise concerns if cap and trade regulations cause emissions to migrate toward higher marginal damage locations. West, J.J., A. F. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, and D. L. Mauzerall. “Mitigating Ozone Pollution with Methane Emission Controls: Global Health Benefits.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 103, no. 11 (2006).Abstract Methane (CH4) contributes to the growing global background concentration of tropospheric ozone (O3), an air pollutant associated with premature mortality. Methane and ozone are also important greenhouse gases. Reducing methane emissions therefore decreases surface ozone everywhere while slowing climate warming, but although methane mitigation has been considered to address climate change, it has not for air quality. Here we show that global decreases in surface ozone concentrations, due to methane mitigation, result in substantial and widespread decreases in premature human mortality. Reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by 20% beginning in 2010 would decrease the average daily maximum 8-h surface ozone by 1 part per billion by volume globally. By using epidemiologic ozonemortality relationships, this ozone reduction is estimated to prevent 30,000 premature all-cause mortalities globally in 2030, and 370,000 between 2010 and 2030. If only cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities are considered, 17,000 global mortalities can be avoided in 2030. The marginal cost-effectiveness of this 20% methane reduction is estimated to be$420,000 per avoided mortality. If avoided mortalities are valued at $1 million each, the benefit is$240 per tonne of CH4 ($12 per tonne of CO2 equivalent), which exceeds the marginal cost of the methane reduction. These estimated air pollution ancillary benefits of climate-motivated methane emission reductions are comparable with those estimated previously for CO2. Methane mitigation offers a unique opportunity to improve air quality globally and can be a cost-effective component of international ozone management, bringing multiple benefits for air quality, public health, agriculture, climate, and energy. 2005 Liu, J., D. L. Mauzerall, and L. W. Horowitz. “Analysis of Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Transpacific Transport.” J. Geophys. Res. 110, no. D04302 (2005).Abstract The purpose of our analysis is both to evaluate the meteorological component of the seasonal and interannual variability of transpacific transport and to identify meteorological features that can be used to estimate transpacific transport. To accomplish this goal, we simulate the transport of nine continental tracers with uniform emissions and two-week lifetimes using the global Model of Ozone and Related Tracers Version 2 (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP reanalysis meteorology from 1991–2001. In addition, we define a transpacific ‘‘transport potential,’’ a measure of the quantity of a tracer transported from a particular region normalized by its total emissions from that region, across a meridional plane in the eastern Pacific at 130W. We find that at midlatitudes, the east Asian and Indian tracers have the largest transport potentials, particularly in spring. The interannual variability of the transpacific transport potentials of most tracers is relatively high in winter and fall (particularly in February and September) but is low from April to August. At high latitudes the former Soviet Union, east Asian, and European tracers have the largest transpacific transport potentials, especially in late summer and fall, when the lowest interannual variability is observed. We find that El Nin˜o winters are associated with stronger eastward transport of east Asian emissions in the subtropical eastern Pacific. Transport of the east Asian tracer in the central North Pacific is well correlated with the North Pacific Index. However, we find that the interannual variability of transport across the west coast of North America is mostly driven by local meteorology. We therefore created a new index based on meteorology over the eastern Pacific, which we call the Eastern Pacific Index (EPI). The EPI captures most of the interannual variability of transpacific transport at both middle- and high-latitude regions across the west coast of North America. Liu, J., and D. L. Mauzerall. “Estimating the Average Time for Inter-continental Transport of Air Pollutants.” Geophysical Research Letters 32, no. L11814 (2005).Abstract We estimate the average time required for intercontinental transport of atmospheric tracers based on simulations with the global chemical tracer model MOZART-2 driven with NCEP meteorology. We represent the average transport time by a ratio of the concentration of two tracers with different lifetimes. We find that average transport times increase with tracer lifetimes. With tracers of 1- and 2-week lifetimes the average transport time from East Asia (EA) to the surface of western North America (NA) in April is 2 – 3 weeks, approximately a half week longer than transport from NA to western Europe (EU) and from EU to EA. We develop an ‘equivalent circulation’ method to estimate a timescale which has little dependence on tracer lifetimes and obtain similar results to those obtained with short-lived tracers. Our findings show that average intercontinental transport times, even for tracers with short lifetimes, are on average 1 – 2 weeks longer than rapid transport observed in plumes. Mauzerall, D. L, B. Sultan, J Kim, and D. Bradford. “NOx Emissions: Variability in Ozone Production, Resulting Health Damages and Economic Costs.” Atmospheric Environment 39, no. 16 (2005): 2851-2866.Abstract We present a proof-of-concept analysis of the measurement of the health damage of ozone (O3) produced from nitrogen oxides ðNOx ¼ NO þ NO2Þ emitted by individual large point sources in the eastern United States. We use a regional atmospheric model of the eastern United States, the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), to quantify the variable impact that a fixed quantity of NOx emitted from individual sources can have on the downwind concentration of surface O3, depending on temperature and local biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. We also examine the dependence of resulting O3-related health damages on the size of the exposed population. The investigation is relevant to the increasingly widely used ‘‘cap and trade’’ approach to NOx regulation, which presumes that shifts of emissions over time and space, holding the total fixed over the course of the summer O3 season, will have minimal effect on the environmental outcome. By contrast, we show that a shift of a unit of NOx emissions from one place or time to another could result in large changes in resulting health effects due to O3 formation and exposure. We indicate how the type of modeling carried out here might be used to attach externality-correcting prices to emissions. Charging emitters fees that are commensurate with the damage caused by their NOx emissions would create an incentive for emitters to reduce emissions at times and in locations where they cause the largest damage. Wang, Xiaoping, Denise L. Mauzerall, Yongtao Hu, Armistead G. Russell, Eric D. Larson, Jung-Hun Woo, David G. Streets, and Alex Guenther. “A high-resolution emission inventory for eastern China in 2000 and three scenarios for 2020.” Atmospheric Environment 39, no. 32 (2005): 5917-5933.Abstract We develop a source-specific high-resolution emission inventory for the Shandong region of eastern China for 2000 and 2020. Our emission estimates for year 2000 are higher than other studies for most pollutants, due to our inclusion of rural coal consumption, which is significant but often underestimated. Still, our inventory evaluation suggests that we likely underestimate actual emissions. We project that emissions will increase greatly from 2000 to 2020 if no additional emission controls are implemented. As a result, PM2.5 concentrations will increase; however O3 concentrations will decrease in most areas due to increased NOx emissions and VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Taking Zaozhuang Municipality in this region as a case study, we examine possible changes in emissions in 2020 given projected growth in energy consumption with no additional controls utilized (BAU), with adoption of best available end-of-pipe controls (BACT), and with advanced, low-emission coal gasification technologies (ACGT) which are capable of gasifying the high-sulfur coal that is abundant in China. Emissions of NH3 are projected to be 20% higher, NMVOC50% higher, and all other species 130–250% higher in 2020 BAU than in 2000. Both alternative 2020 emission scenarios would reduce emissions relative to BAU. Adoption of ACGT, which meets only 24% of energy service demand in Zaozhuang in 2020 would reduce emissions more than BACT with 100% penetration. In addition, coal gasification technologies create an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by capturing and sequestering CO2 emissions below ground. Tong, D.Q., and D. L. Mauzerall. “Technical Note: Numerical instability in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model and its impacts on aerosol and ozone simulations.” Atmospheric Environment (2005).Abstract This paper reports a numerical instability problem in the widely used Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and discusses its impacts on ozone and particulate matter simulations. By adding 0.5 moles/sec of NO x emissions to Middlesex County, CT, for example, CMAQ (2003 version) predicts up to 1 μg/m 3 change in PM 2.5 concentrations in the Ohio Valley and southern California in less then 48 hours. These regions are beyond the reach of normal transport processes in such a short time, and the remote and upwind responses are 100 times larger than responses near or downwind of the source area. More recently, progress has been made in reducing the numerical instability by correcting coding errors in the transport algorithm, adopting additional vertical wind adjustment to enhance mass conservation, and making numerous improvements in the ISSOROPIA aerosol thermodynamics module (2004 and 2005 CMAQ versions). These improvements, however, are not sufficient to reduce the instability to a reasonable level. The magnitude of peak instability in the 2005 version of CMAQ remains comparable to the normal responses from NO x emissions of a middle-size power plant. This problem, although having a minor effect on the model performance to simulate total O 3 and PM concentrations, results in difficulties when the current version of CMAQ is used to address many important air quality issues including localized emission controls and source-receptor simulations. Naik, V., D. L. Mauzerall, L. W. Horowitz, D. Schwarzkopf, V. Ramaswamy, and M. Oppenheimer. “Net Radiative Forcing Due to Changes in Regional Emissions to Tropospheric Ozone Precursors.” Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2005).Abstract The global distribution of tropospheric ozone (O3) depends on the emission of precursors, chemistry, and transport. For small perturbations to emissions, the global radiative forcing resulting from changes in O3 can be expressed as a sum of forcings from emission changes in different regions. Tropospheric O3 is considered in present climate policies only through the inclusion of indirect effect of CH4 on radiative forcing through its impact on O3 concentrations. The short-lived O3 precursors (NOx, CO, and NMHCs) are not directly included in the Kyoto Protocol or any similar climate mitigation agreement. In this study, we quantify the global radiative forcing resulting from a marginal reduction (10%) in anthropogenic emissions of NOx alone from nine geographic regions and a combined marginal reduction in NOx, CO, and NMHCs emissions from three regions. We simulate, using the global chemistry transport model MOZART-2, the change in the distribution of global O3 resulting from these emission reductions. In addition to the short-term reduction in O3, these emission reductions also increase CH4 concentrations (by decreasing OH); this increase in CH4 in turn counteracts part of the initial reduction in O3 concentrations. We calculate the global radiative forcing resulting from the regional emission reductions, accounting for changes in both O3 and CH4. Our results show that changes in O3 production and resulting distribution depend strongly on the geographical location of the reduction in precursor emissions. We find that the global O3 distribution and radiative forcing are most sensitive to changes in precursor emissions from tropical regions and least sensitive to changes from midlatitude and high-latitude regions. Changes in CH4 and O3 concentrations resulting from NOx emission reductions alone produce offsetting changes in radiative forcing, leaving a small positive residual forcing (warming) for all regions. In contrast, for combined reductions of anthropogenic emissions of NOx, CO, and NMHCs, changes in O3 and CH4 concentrations result in a net negative radiative forcing (cooling). Thus we conclude that simultaneous reductions of CO, NMHCs, and NOx lead to a net reduction in radiative forcing due to resulting changes in tropospheric O3 and CH4 while reductions in NOx emissions alone do not. 2004 Hale, Thomas N., and Denise L. Mauzerall. “Thinking Globally and Acting Locally: Can the Johannesburg Partnerships Coordinate Action on Sustainable Development?Journal of Environment and Development (2004).Abstract At the 2002 UN World Summit on Sustainable Development, a new multistakeholder partnerships initiative was launched. It was hoped that partnerships would catalyze nongovernmental participation in and additional funding of sustainable development projects around the world. The authors find that at present, however, little partnership financing is coming from new sources; most is coming from governments and less than 1% from the private sector. Guided by empirical findings from the partnerships to date, we propose the following to make the partnership program more effective: (a) establishing a learning network; (b) increasing the transparency of partnerships; (c) increasing private sector and small stakeholder participation; (d) establishing an institutional home to support partnerships; and (e) ensuring that the partnerships are consistent with multilateral priorities. Wang, X., and D. L. Mauzerall. “Characterizing Distributions of Surface Ozone and its Impact on Grain Production in China, Japan and South Korea: 1990 and 2020.” Atmospheric Environment 38 (2004): 4383-4402.Abstract Using an integrated assessment approach, we evaluate the impact that surface O3 in East Asia had on agricultural production in 1990 and is projected to have in 2020. We also examine the effect that emission controls and the enforcement of environmental standards could have in increasing grain production in China. We find that given projected increases in O3 concentrations in the region, East Asian countries are presently on the cusp of substantial reductions in grain production. Our conservative estimates, based on 7- and 12-h mean (M7 or M12) exposure indices, show that due to O3 concentrations in 1990 China, Japan and South Korea lost 1–9% of their yield of wheat, rice and corn and 23–27% of their yield of soybeans, with an associated value of 1990US$ 3.5, 1.2 and 0.24 billion, respectively. In 2020, assuming no change in agricultural production practices and again using M7 and M12 exposure indices, grain loss due to increased levels of O3 pollution is projected to increase to 2–16% for wheat, rice and corn and 28–35% for soybeans; the associated economic costs are expected to increase by 82%, 33%, and 67% in 2020 over 1990 for China, Japan and South Korea, respectively. For most crops, the yield losses in 1990 based on SUM06 or W126 exposure indices are lower than yield losses estimated using M7 or M12 exposure indices in China and Japan but higher in South Korea; in 2020, the yield losses based on SUM06 or W126 exposure indices are substantially higher for all crops in all three countries. This is primarily due to the nature of the cumulative indices which weight elevated values of O3 more heavily than lower values. Chinese compliance with its ambient O3 standard in 1990 would have had a limited effect in reducing the grain yield loss caused by O3 exposure, resulting in only US$0.2 billion of additional grain revenues, but in 2020 compliance could reduce the yield loss by one third and lead to an increase of US$ 2.6 (M7 or M12) –27 (SUM06) billion in grain revenues. We conclude that East Asian countries may have tremendous losses of crop yields in the near future due to projected increases in O3 concentrations. They likely could achieve substantial increases in future agricultural production through reduction of surface O3 concentrations and/or use of O3 resistant crop cultivars. r 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Committee on Air Quality Management in the United States, Air Quality Management in the United States. National Research Council/National Academies of Science, 2004.
2003
Horowitz, L. W., S. Walters, D. L. Mauzerall, L.K. Emmons, P.J. Rasch, C. Granier, X. Tie, et al.A Global Simulation of Tropospheric Ozone and Related Tracers: Description and Evaluation of MOZART, Version 2.” Journal of Geophysical Research 108, no. D24 (2003): 4784.Abstract
We have developed a global three-dimensional chemical transport model called Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART), version 2. This model, which will be made available to the community, is built on the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) and can easily be driven with various meteorological inputs and model resolutions. In this work, we describe the standard configuration of the model, in which the model is driven by meteorological inputs every 3 hours from the middle atmosphere version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (MACCM3) and uses a 20-min time step and a horizontal resolution of 2.8 latitude 2.8 longitude with 34 vertical levels extending up to approximately 40 km. The model includes a detailed chemistry scheme for tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxides, and hydrocarbon chemistry, with 63 chemical species. Tracer advection is performed using a flux-form semi-Lagrangian scheme with a pressure fixer. Subgrid-scale convective and boundary layer parameterizations are included in the model. Surface emissions include sources from fossil fuel combustion, biofuel and biomass burning, biogenic and soil emissions, and oceanic emissions. Parameterizations of dry and wet deposition are included. Stratospheric concentrations of several long-lived species (including ozone) are constrained by relaxation toward climatological values. The distribution of tropospheric ozone is well simulated in the model, including seasonality and horizontal and vertical gradients. However, the model tends to overestimate ozone near the tropopause at high northern latitudes. Concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nitric acid (HNO3) agree well with observed values, but peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) is overestimated by the model in the upper troposphere at several locations. Carbon monoxide (CO) is simulated well at most locations, but the seasonal cycle is underestimated at some sites in the Northern Hemisphere. We find that in situ photochemical production and loss dominate the tropospheric ozone budget, over input from the stratosphere and dry deposition. Approximately 75% of the tropospheric production and loss of ozone occurs within the tropics, with large net production in the tropical upper troposphere. Tropospheric production and loss of ozone are three to four times greater in the northern extratropics than the southern extratropics. The global sources of CO consist of photochemical production (55%) and direct emissions (45%). The tropics dominate the chemistry of CO, accounting for about 75% of the tropospheric production and loss. The global budgets of tropospheric ozone and CO are generally consistent with the range found in recent studies. The lifetime of methane (9.5 years) and methylchloroform (5.7 years) versus oxidation by tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH), two useful measures of the global abundance of OH, agree well with recent estimates. Concentrations of nonmethane hydrocarbons and oxygenated intermediates (carbonyls and peroxides) generally agree well with observations.
2001
Mauzerall, Denise L., and Xiaoping Wang. “Protecting Agricultural Crops from the Effects of Tropospheric Ozone Exposure: Reconciling Science and Standard Setting in the United States, Europe and Asia.” Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 26 (2001): 237-268.Abstract
Ozone (O3) is well documented as the air pollutant most damaging to agricultural crops and other plants. Most crops in developed countries are grown in summer when O3 concentrations are elevated and frequently are sufficiently high to reduce yields. This article examines the difficulties in scientifically determining the reduction in yield that results from the exposure of agricultural crops to surface O3 and then transforming that knowledge into efficient and effective regulatory standards. The different approaches taken by the United States and Europe in addressing this issue as well as the few studies that have been conducted to date in developing countries are examined and summarized. Extensive research was conducted in the United States during the 1980s but has not been continued. During the 1990s, the European community forged ahead with scientific research and innovative proposals for air-quality standards. These efforts included the development of a “critical level” (CL) for O3 based on a cumulative exposure above a cutoff concentration below which only an acceptable level of harm is incurred. Current research focuses on estimating O3 dosage to plants and incorporating this metric into regulatory standards. The US regulatory community can learn from current European scientific research and regulatory strategies, which argue strongly for a separate secondary standard for O3 to protect vegetation. Increasing impacts of O3 on crops are likely in developing countries as they continue to industrialize and their emissions of air pollutants increase. More research is needed on surface O3 concentrations in developing countries, on their projected increase, and on the sensitivity that crop cultivars used in developing countries have to O3. The threat of reduced agricultural yields due to increasing O3 concentrations may encourage developing countries to increase their energy efficiency and to use different energy sources. This could simultaneously achieve a local benefit through improved regional air quality and a global benefit through a reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases.
2000
Mauzerall, Denise L., D. Narita, H. Akimoto, L. Horowitz, S. Walters, D. Hauglustaine, and B. Brasseur. “Seasonal Characteristics of Tropospheric Ozone Production and Mixing Ratios Over East Asia: A Global Three-dimensional Chemical Transport Model Analysis.” Journal of Geophysical Research 105 (2000): 17895-17910.Abstract
We examine seasonal and geographical distributions of tropospheric ozone production and mixing ratios over East Asia with a global three-dimensional chemical transport model called Model of Ozone and Related Tracers, version 1 (MOZART-1). Net ozone production within the East Asian boundary layer exhibits three distinct seasonal cycles depending on region (north of 20N, 5-20N and south of 5N). North of 20N, net ozone production over East Asia from spring through autumn is found to have a maximum extending from 25N-40N and from central eastern China to Japan, resulting from the strong emission and transport of anthropogenic O3 precursors. In winter, maximum O3 production in this region occurs between 20N and 30N. This is a region of long-range transport. Over the Indochina peninsula, between 5N and 20N, net O3 production is controlled by the seasonal cycle between wet and dry seasons and has a maximum at the end of the dry season due to emissions from biomass burning. South of 5N, in the true tropics, O3 mixing ratios are relatively constant throughout the year and do not exhibit a seasonal cycle. A spring-summer maximum of net O3 production is found throughout the troposphere in East Asia. We estimate an annual net O3 production in East Asia of 117 Tg/yr. Both model results and analysis of measurements of O3-CO correlations over East Asia and Japan show strong variability as a function of both photochemical activity and seasonal meteorology, and indicate ozone export off the coast of East Asia in spring. An upper estimate of O3 export from East Asia to the Pacific Ocean in the mid-1980s of 3.3 Gmol/day (58 Tg/yr) is obtained.
1998
Mauzerall, Denise L., J. A. Logan, D. J. Jacob, B. E. Anderson, D. R. Blake, J. D. Bradshaw, G. W. Sachse, H. B. Singh, and R. W. Talbot. “Photochemistry in Biomass Burning Plumes and Implications for Tropospheric Ozone Over the Tropical South Atlantic.” Journal of Geophysical Research 103 (1998): 8401-8423.Abstract
We quantify the tropospheric ozone budget over remote high northern latitudes in summer using chemical and meteorological measurements between 0 and 6-km made during the summer 1990 Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE-3B). We include all components of the ozone budget, both sinks (in situ photochemical loss and deposition); and sources (in situ photochemical production, advection of pollution ozone into the region, production in biomass wildfire plumes, and downwards transport from the upper troposphere/stratosphere). In situ production and loss of ozone are calculated with a photochemical model. The net influx of pollution ozone from North America and Eurasia is estimated from the average enhancement ratio of DO3/DC2Cl4 observed in pollution plumes and scaled by the net influx of C2Cl4. The contribution of ozone produced in biomass wildfire plumes is estimated from the average enhancement ration of DO3/DCO in aged fire plumes. Regional photochemical production and loss in the 0-6 km column are found to be approximately equal; hence, net photochemical production is near zero. However, when ozone production and loss terms are separated, we find that dispersed in situ photochemical production driven by background NOx levels (5-10 pptv) is the largest source term in the ozone budget (62%). Influx of stratospheric ozone is of secondary importance (27%), long-range transport of pollution ozone makes a small contribution (9%), and photochemical production of ozone within biomass wildfire plumes is a relatively negligible term (2%) in the budget. Biomass fires and transport of anthropogenic pollution in the region may however have a major effect on the ozone budget through enhancement of background NOx mixing ratios which increase dispersed photochemical production. Using a 1-D time-dependent photochemical model between 0 and 6 km, we obtain good agreement between the observed and model-generated vertical ozone profiles. We find that in situ photochemistry within the 0-6 km column accounts for nearly 90% of the ozone mixing ratio within the boundary layer, while above 5 km it accounts for only about 40%. Although photochemical production of ozone within the 0-6 km column is larger than the other source terms combined, the 1-D model results indicate that influx from above is necessary to account for the observed increase in ozone mixing ratios with altitude.
1996
Jacob, D. J., B. G. Heikes, S. M. Fan, J. A. Logan, D. L. Mauzerall, J. D. Bradshaw, R. W. Talbot, D. R. Blake, and G. W. Sachse. “Origin of Ozone and NOx in the Tropical Troposphere: A Photochemical Analysis of Aircraft Observations Over the South Atlantic Basin.” Journal of Geophysical Research 101 (1996): 24235-24250.Abstract
The photochemistry of the troposphere over the South Atlantic Basin is examined by modeling of aircraft observations up to 12-km altitude from the TRACE-A expedition in September-October 1992. A close balance is found in the 0-12 km column between photochemical production and loss of O3, with net production at high altitudes compensating for weak net loss at low altitudes. Simulation of H2O2, CH3OOH, and CH2O concentrations measured aboard the aircraft lends confidence in the computations of O3 production and loss rates. Influx from the stratosphere is negligible as a source of O3 or NOx to the 0-12 km column. The primary sources of NOx appear to be continental (combustion, lightning, soils) and include a major contribution from biomass burning. There is evidence that NOx throughout the 0-12 km column is recycled from its oxidation products rather than directly transported from its primary sources. There is also evidence for rapid conversion of HNO3 to NOx in the upper troposphere by a mechanism not included in current models. A general representation of the O3 budget in the tropical troposphere is proposed that couples the large-scale Walker circulation and in situ photochemistry. Deep convection in the rising branches of the Walker circulation injects NOx from combustion, soils, and lightning to the upper troposphere, leading to O3 production; eventually the air subsides and net O3 loss takes place in the lower troposphere, closing the O3 cycle. This scheme implies a great sensitivity of the oxidizing power of the atmosphere to NOx emissions in the tropics.