Research

Working Paper
Smith, Matt, et al.Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Revise and Resubmit November 2017 (Working Paper). Print.Abstract

Have passive rentiers replaced the working rich at the top of the U.S. income distribution? Using income tax data linking 11 million firms to their owners, this paper finds that private business owners who actively manage their firms are key for top income inequality. Private business income accounts for most of the rise of top incomes since 2000 and the majority of top earners receive private business income—most of which accrues to active owner-managers of mid-market firms in relatively skill-intensive and unconcentrated industries. Profit falls substantially after premature owner deaths. Top-owned firms are twice as profitable per worker as other firms despite similar risk, and rising profitability without rising scale explains most of their profit growth. Together, these facts indicate that the working rich remain central to rising top incomes in the twenty-first century.

Manuscript.pdf
Serrato, Juan Carlos Suárez, and Owen Zidar. “The Structure of State Corporate Taxation and its Impact on State Tax Revenues and Economic Activity”. Journal of Public Economics, Conditionally Accepted February 2018 (Working Paper). Web. NBER WP 23653Abstract
This paper documents facts about the state corporate tax structure—tax rates, base rules, and credits—and investigates its consequences for state tax revenue and economic activity. We present three main findings. First, tax base rules and credits explain more of the variation in state corporate tax revenues than tax rates do. Second, although states typically do not offset tax rate changes with base and credit changes, the effects of tax rate changes on tax revenue and economic activity depend on the breadth of the base. Third, as states have narrowed their tax bases, the relationship between tax rates and tax revenues has diminished. Overall, changes in state tax bases have made the state corporate tax system more favorable for corporations and are reducing the extent to which tax rate increases raise corporate tax revenue.
Revised_Manuscript.pdf
Kline, Pat, et al.Who Profits from Patents? Rent-sharing at Innovative Firms”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Revise and Resubmit September 2017 (Working Paper). Print.Abstract

This paper analyzes how patent-induced shocks to labor productivity propagate into worker compensation using a new linkage of US patent applications to US business and worker tax records. We infer the causal effects of patent allowances by comparing firms whose patent applications were initially allowed to those whose patent applications were initially rejected. To identify patents that are ex-ante valuable, we extrapolate the excess stock return estimates of Kogan et al. (2017) to the full set of accepted and rejected patent applications based on predetermined firm and patent application characteristics. An initial allowance of an ex-ante valuable patent generates substantial increases in firm productivity and worker compensation. By contrast, initial allowances of lower ex-ante value patents yield no detectable effects on firm outcomes. On average, workers capture 29 cents of every dollar of patent-induced operating surplus. This share is larger for men, employees who are listed as inventors, and firm stayers present since the year of application. Patent allowances lead firms to increase employment, but we find minimal evidence of quality upgrading or selection bias in workforce composition. Surprisingly, entry wages are insensitive to patent decisions, suggesting that the large earnings responses of incumbent workers may reflect performance pay.

Manuscript.pdf
Fajgelbaum, Pablo, et al.State Taxes and Spatial Misallocation”. Review of Economic Studies, Revised and Resubmitted May 2018 (Working Paper). Web. NBER WP 21760Abstract

We study state taxes as a potential source of spatial misallocation in the United States. We build a spatial general equilibrium framework that incorporates salient features of the U.S. state tax system, and use changes in state tax rates between 1980 and 2010 to estimate the model parameters that determine how worker and firm location respond to changes in state taxes. We find that heterogeneity in state tax rates leads to aggregate losses. Harmonizing state taxes increases worker welfare by 0.5 percent if government spending is held constant, and by 1.0 percent if government spending responds endogenously. Harmonization of state taxes within Census regions achieves most of these gains. We also use our model to study the general equilibrium effects of recently implemented and proposed tax reforms.

Coverage: VoxEUNPR MarketplaceNBER ITI Research Summary

Revised_Manuscript.pdf
Forthcoming
Zidar, Owen. “Tax Cuts for Whom? Heterogeneous Effects of Tax Changes on Growth and Employment”. Journal of Political Economy (Forthcoming). Web. NBER WP 21035Abstract

This paper investigates how tax changes for different income groups affect aggregate economic activity. I construct a measure of who received (or paid for) tax changes in the postwar period using tax return data from NBER's TAXSIM. I aggregate each tax change by income group and state. Variation in the income distribution across U.S. states and federal tax changes generate variation in regional tax shocks that I exploit to test for heterogeneous effects. I find that the positive relationship between tax cuts and employment growth is largely driven by tax cuts for lower-income groups, and that the effect of tax cuts for the top 10% on employment growth is small.

Coverage: Washington PostBloombergForbesWSJMoneyweekWashington PostFinancial TimesWashington PostMarketwatchCongressional QuartelyInternational Business TimesWashtington Post, Reuters, Huffington PostInternational Business TimesThe New York Times (Economix)Capital IdeasWashington Post.

Manuscript.pdf
2016
Cooper, Michael, et al.Business in the United States: Who Owns it and How Much Tax Do They Pay?”. Tax Policy and the Economy. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2016. 90-128. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

"Pass-through” businesses like partnerships and S-corporations now generate over half of U.S. business income and account for much of the post-1980 rise in the top- 1% income share. We use administrative tax data from 2011 to identify pass-through business owners and estimate how much tax they pay. We present three findings. (1) Relative to traditional business income, pass-through business income is substantially more concentrated among high-earners. (2) Partnership ownership is opaque: 20% of the income goes to unclassifiable partners, and 15% of the income is earned in circularly owned partnerships. (3) The average federal income tax rate on U.S. pass- through business income is 19%|much lower than the average rate on traditional corporations. If pass-through activity had remained at 1980's low level, strong but straightforward assumptions imply that the 2011 average U.S. tax rate on total U.S. business income would have been 28% rather than 24%, and tax revenue would have been approximately $100 billion higher.

Links: Video of Presentation. Discussion with Jim PoterbaNBER Interview on Tax Policy and the Economy.
Coverage: NBER Digest Summary,WSJ,WSJ,Washington PostPBS, Fiscal TimesWSJ,PoliticoPoliticoBloombergNew York TimesLos Angeles TimesCapital IdeasNew York TimesNew York Times.

Manuscript.pdf Data.xlsx Appendix.pdf Slides.pdf
Serrato, Juan Carlos Suárez, and Owen Zidar. “Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Market Approach with Heterogeneous Firms”. American Economic Review 106.9 (2016): , 106, 9, 2582-2624. Web. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This paper estimates the incidence of state corporate taxes on the welfare of workers, landowners, and firm owners using variation in state corporate tax rates and apportionment rules. We develop a spatial equilibrium model with imperfectly mobile firms and workers. Firm owners may earn profits and be inframarginal in their location choices due to differences in location-specific productivities. We use the reduced-form effects of tax changes to identify and estimate incidence as well as the structural parameters governing these impacts. In contrast to standard open economy models, firm owners bear roughly 40 percent of the incidence, while workers and landowners bear 30-35 percent and 25-30 percent, respectively.

Coverage: NBER Digest SummaryWashington PostWSJ, Chicago Sun TimesCapital Ideas.

Manuscript.pdf Replication.zip Slides.pdf Appendix.pdf